Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Mar 23

A Strong Midlevel Shortwave Trough Invof The Four Corners Will
Progress Ewd Over The Srn Plains By Early Tonight...And Approach The Ms Valley By The End Of The Period.

Meanwhile...A Surface Baroclinic Zone Is Located From The Middle Tx Coastal Plain Enewd Into Srn La...And Then Esewd Just Off The Ne Gulf Coast. This Boundary Will Move Slowly Inland As A Warm Front Today And Tonight Across Ms/Al/N Fl/Sw Ga...In Response To Cyclogenesis By Tonight Across Nrn Ms/Nw Al/Wrn Tn In Advance Of The Midlevel Trough.

Boundary Layer Dewpoints In The Mid-Upper 60s...Beneath The Ern
Extent Of An Elevated Mixed Layer Plume...Will Support Moderate
Instability In The Warm Sector And An Attendant Risk For Severe
Storms Through The Period.

N Tx Ewd To Nrn La And Central Ms Today...

A Cluster Of Elevated Storms In N Tx Is Associated With Low-Level
Waa Above The Shallow Cool Air Mass That Continues To Sag Sewd
Across S Central Tx And The Middle-Upper Tx Coastal Plain. 700-500
Mb Lapse Rates Of 7.5-8.5 C/Km And Rich Moisture Above The Shallow Cool Air Are Contributing To Mucape Of 1000-1500 J/Kg Rooted Near 850 Mb. This Convection And The Associated Zone Of Ascent Will Spread Ewd Through The Day With A Continuing Risk For Large Hail To The N Of The Surface Front. The Hail Risk Will Be Enhanced By Embedded Supercell Structures As A Result Of Effective Bulk Shear Aoa 50 Kt In The Moderately Unstable Environment...Especially Where Convection Is Rooted Closer To The Ground Immediately N Of The Surface Front...Across Nrn La Into W Central Ms This Afternoon.

Srn Ms/Srn Al/Srn Ga/N Fl Through Tonight...

Low-Level Moisture Is Spreading Nwd/Newd This Morning In A Weak Waa Regime Across The N Central/Ne Gulf Coast. The Initial Convection This Morning Will Be Elevated To The N Of The Warm Front...But There Will Be Increasing Potential For Surface-Based Storms Near The Coast By Mid-Late Morning...Spreading Gradually Inland During The Afternoon. Low-Level Flow Will Not Be Strong Today...But Deep-Layer Vertical Shear Will Be Favorable For Supercells Capable Of Producing Large Hail And Damaging Gusts. A Tornado Or Two Will Also Be Possible With Surface-Based Storms Along The Warm Front Today...Given The Moist Low-Level Environment And Sufficient Low-Level Shear.

Overnight...

Low-Level Flow/Shear Is Forecast To Increase As The Primary Synoptic Wave Approaches From The W...And Cyclogenesis Proceeds Across The Ms Valley.

Thunderstorm Development Will Persist Through Tonight Along The Warm Front And Much Of The Same Corridor As The Convection Today...Which Could Limit Inland Penetration Of The Warm Sector.

The Threat For Large Hail/Damaging Winds Will Also Continue Through Tonight...As Well As The Risk For A Few Tornadoes As Low-Level Shear Increases.

Storm Coverage Is In Question Along The Cold Front...And In The Open Warm Sector...From Extreme Se Tx Across Srn La Today Into Tonight. The Track Of The Primary Synoptic Trough To The N Of This
Area...Veered Low-Level Flow...And Only Weak Low-Level Convergence Along The Cold Front All Suggest Storm Coverage Will Be Rather Isolated At Best. However...Any Storms That Do Form Will Have The Potential To Produce Large Hail And Damaging Winds... Given The Environment With Rich Low-Level Moisture...Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates...And Strong Deep-Layer Vertical Shear.


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