Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Mar 16

A Low Amplitude Progressive Flow Regime Will Persist Over The U.S.
Saturday. A Shortwave Trough Will Move Into The Pacific Nw...While A
Srn Stream Impulse Advances Through The Great Basin And Srn Rockies. Shortwave Trough Now Dropping Into The Upper Ms Valley Will Continue Through The Great Lakes And Nern States. A Weak Sfc Low Will Shift Through The Oh Valley In Association With This Feature Before Reaching The Mid Atlantic Region Saturday Afternoon And Evening.

Cold Front Should Move Swd Into The Tn Valley In Wake Of The
Low...While A Warm Front Lifts Newd Through The Mid Atlantic Region
During The Day.

Tn Valley...Srn Appalachians Through Mid Atlantic Area...

The Gulf Is Still Undergoing Modification With Dewpoints Around 60
Near The Tx Coast And 50s Farther Inland.

Axis Of Modified Cp Air Will Continue To Advect Newd Through The Tn Valley And Mid Atlantic Warm Sector Saturday With Boundary Layer Dewpoints Generally In The Upper 40s To Near 50 Expected.

Concurrently...Plume Of 7-7.5 C/Km 700-500 Mb Lapse Rates Advecting Above The Moist Axis...Combined With Diabatic Warming Will Contribute To Destabilization Saturday Afternoon.

However...Limited Moisture Return Suggests Instability Will Remain Marginal With Mlcape Generally Aob 300 J/Kg Expected. Sref Members Continue To Advertise More Cape /400-600 J/Kg/ Than
What Is Expected To Develop Based On Current Observations And

Cluster Of Elevated Storms Will Likely Be Ongoing Within Zone Of
Isentropic Lift And Warm Advection Over The Cntrl Appalachians
Saturday Morning.

This Activity Will Shift Ewd Through Va/Md During The Day. The Warm Sector Should Destabilize In Wake Of The Morning Storms...And Additional Storms Are Expected To Develop Along The Swd Advancing Cold Front And Higher Terrain Of The Srn Appalachians.

Steep Lapse Rates And Inverted-V Boundary Layers Along With Strong Unidirectional Deep Shear May Support A Threat Of Isolated Damaging Wind Gusts Along With Some Hail. Overall Threat And Coverage Of Any Severe Events Is Expected To Remain Somewhat Limited By Weak Instability.

If It Begins To Appear More Instability Will Develop Than Currently Anticipated...A Portion Of This Area Will Need To Be Upgraded To A Slight Risk In A Later Day 1 Outlook.

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