Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Jun 8

A Belt Of Modestly Strong Mid/Upper Flow...Including The Remnants Of Andrea...And An Upstream Impulse Now Migrating Northeastward Through The Mid Atlantic Coast States...Appears Likely To Gradually Shift From The Northwestern Through Northern Periphery Of Subtropical Ridging Centered Over The Western Atlantic Today.

As This Occurs...Models Suggest Upper Ridging Will Begin To Expand Westward Into The South Atlantic Coast States And Eastern Gulf Of Mexico.

At The Same Time...Models Indicate That A Strong Upper Jet Emerging From The Pacific Will Continue To Nose Inland Along The Western Canadian/U.S. Border. While This Regime Will Remain More Or Less Zonal In Nature...An Impulse Emanating From It Is In The Process Of Digging To The Lee Of The Rockies...And Will Contribute To Sharpening Upper Troughing Over The Central Plains Later Today Into Tonight.

Mid Mo Valley Into The Srn High Plains/Texas Big Bend Region...

In Association With The Amplifying Upper Trough...Models Indicate
The Continued Development And Southeastward Progression Of A Low/ Mid-Level Cyclone Over The Mid Missouri Valley Region Today. This Feature...And Surface Troughing Extending South Southwestward Through The Southern High Plains And Southwest Texas...Are Expected To Provide The Focus For Considerable Thunderstorm Activity During This Period. A Significant Moisture Return From The Gulf Of Mexico Is Unlikely. However...Mid/Upper 50s Surface Dew Points Now Present Across Much Of The Central And Southern Plains...Coupled With Some Further Increase Due To Evapotranspiration...Probably Will Support Weak To Moderate Cape In The Presence Of Steep Low/Mid Level Lapse Rates Across Parts Of The Central Plains Into The Texas Panhandle.

Vertical Shear Across This Region Appears Likely To Be Supportive Of
Organized Storm Development...Including Supercells. Tornadic
Potential Remains A Bit Unclear. Large Clockwise Curved Low-Level
Hodographs Are Expected Near A 30-40 Kt Southerly Low-Level Jet
Across Central Kansas Into The Mid Missouri Valley...Where Mid To
High Level Flow Likely Will Remain Relatively Weak.

Stronger Mid/Upper Flow Supportive Of Longer Hodographs Will Be Focused Across Parts Of Southwest Kansas Into The Oklahoma/ Texas Panhandle Region...Where Low-Level Hodographs May Remain Somewhat Small Until Mid To Late Evening.

Regardless...Thermodynamic Profiles Will Mostly Be Characterized By Sizable Lower/Mid Tropospheric Temperature-Dew Point Spreads...Which Probably Will Result In The Tendency For Convective Outflow To Quickly Undercut Any Developing Mesocyclones. As A Result...Large Hail And Strong Wind Gusts Appear The Primary Severe Weather Threats.

Eastern North Carolina...

Before The Mid-Level Impulse Migrating Through The Mid Atlantic
Coast States Lifts Northeast Of The Region...Destabilization Of A
Lingering Moist Air Mass May Provide A Window Of Opportunity For
Isolated Vigorous Storm Development. Deep Layer Flow And Shear
Could Remain Strong Enough For Organized Storm Development Into The Afternoon Hours...Before Weakening.


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