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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Jun 29

Amplified Wrn Ridge/Ern Trough Pattern Will Persist Through Sun.
A Shortwave Trough Now Nearing The Wa/Ore Cst Will Continue Ne Into Bc Later Today...While A Series Of Disturbances Over The Upr Ms Vly Advance Se Into The Mid Ms/Lwr Oh Vlys...Further Amplifying Ern
Trough.

At Lwr Lvls...A Broad Area Of Cyclonic Flow...With Several Weak
Frontal Surges...Will Prevail From New England And The Lwr Grt Lks
Region Sw Into The Lwr Ms Vly. Weak Upslope Flow On The Wrn Fringe Of This Circulation Will Impact The Cntrl High Plns. Strong To
Locally Svr Aftn/Eve Tstms Could Accompany The Upslope Flow In The High Plns...And The Frontal Surges Over Parts Of The East And South.

Cntrl Rckys/High Plns This Aftn/Eve...

Weak...Sely Upslope Flow Will Prevail Over Co And Adjacent Parts Of
Nm And Wy Today...On Wrn Fringe Of Sfc Ridge Building S Through The Cntrl U.S. Moisture Will Remain Somewhat Limited At Lwr Lvls /Sfc Dewpoints In The Low 50s F/. Pw Will...However...Be Augmented By Mid/Upr Lvl Moisture Circulating Around Upr Ridge To Yield Values
Close To 1 Inch. Coupled With Strong Sfc Heating/Steep Low-Lvl Lapse Rates...Expect Ample Instability /800-1200 J Per Kg Mlcape/ For The Development Of Strong Aftn Storms Over The Higher Terrain. These Should Move/Develop Ssewd...With The 30-40 Kt Deep Shear Promoting Sustained Storms And A Few Supercells Capable Of Large Hail/Locally Dmgg Wind Through Mid-Eve.

New England This Aftn/Early Eve...

A Warm Front Will Move/Redevelop N Across Cntrl/Nrn New England
Today As 50+ Kt Sswly Jet Streak Now Centered Along The Mid-Atlantic Cst Continues Nnewd. Vis Satellite Data Suggest That At Least Patchy Sfc Heating Will Occur In The Wake Of The Front And E Of Slowly-Progressive Cold Front/Wind Shift Now Over The Hudson Vly.

Mid To Upr 60s Sfc Dewpoints With Even Modest Heating Should Yield 1000-1500 J/Kg Mlcape With Minimal Cin. Coupled With The Approach Of The Mid-Atlantic Jet Streak And 40-50 Kt Swly...Largely
Unidirectional Deep Shear...Setup Could Foster Development Of Sctd
Sustained Storms And Possibly A Few Supercells. Dmgg Wind... Marginally Svr Hail...And Perhaps A Tornado Could Occur Through Early Eve.

Nern Ore Through Nrn Rckys...

Seasonably Strong /40 Kt/ Swly Mid-Lvl Flow Will Prevail Over The
Pacific Nw/Nrn Rckys Today On Nw Side Of Upr Ridge. Sctd Tstms Now Occurring Over Ern Wa/Nrn Id Appear To Be Associated With Upr
Impulse Grazing The Wa/Ore Cst. Additional Storms Should Form This Aftn From Ern Ore Newd Into The Nrn Rckys In Response To Sfc
Heating...And Perhaps To Lingering Influence Of Upr Impulse...As
Mlcape Increases To 500-1000 J/Kg. Some Of The Storms Could Produce Isold Instances Of Svr Hail/Wind Through Early Tngt.

Parts Of Ern Ore/Wa...Id And Nw Mt May Require Upgrade To Slight Risk If It Appears That Large Scale Forcing For Ascent Will Remain Strong Enough To Encourage More Widespread/Enhanced Storm Development Across The Region Than Is Now Expected.


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