Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Jun 22

A Rather Persistent Upper Pattern Is In Place Over The United States ...With An Upper Trough Over The Northern Rockies...And An Upper Ridge Across Most Of The Southern Plains And Southeast States.

Multiple Clusters Of Strong/Severe Thunderstorms Are Expected To
Affect The Central/Northern Plains And Midwest States Again Today.

Upper Ms Valley This Morning...

Three Large Complexes Of Thunderstorms Are Ongoing This Morning Over Eastern Neb...Eastern Ia/Southwest Wi...And Northern Il. Each Of These Mcs/S Have An Associated Outflow Boundary Surging Southward. While Organized Severe Storms Are Not Likely With This Morning Activity...The Eventual Placement Of These Boundaries Will Play A Major Role In Determining The Primary Risk Areas For Severe Storms Later Today.

Neb/Sern Sd/Srn Mn/Wi...

One Outflow Boundary Currently Extends From Eastern Neb Into
Northeast Co. South Of The Boundary Very Moist/Unstable Conditions
Will Develop By Mid Afternoon. Increasing Southerly Low Level Winds
Will Help Shift The Boundary Slowly Northward...As Well As Focus Low Level Convergence Later Today. Present Indications Are That
Scattered Thunderstorms Will Form Along This Boundary By Late
Afternoon Over Neb And Southeastern Sd. Initial Storms May Be
Supercellular With A Risk Of Very Large Hail And A Few Tornadoes.
Storms Will Eventually Grow Upscale And Track Eastward Across Ia And Southern Mn This Evening...And Possibly Into Wi Overnight.

High Plains From Southeast Mt Into Western Ks...

Strong Daytime Heating And Weak Upslope Flow Will Promote The
Development Of Scattered Thunderstorms Again Today Over The High
Plains Of Southeast Mt...Eastern Wy/Co...And Western Ks.
Sufficiently Strong Deep Layer Shear And Steep Lapse Rates Will
Promote Supercell Storms Capable Of Large Hail And Isolated
Tornadoes.

Coverage Of Storms Is Uncertain On The South End Of This Risk Area /Over Co And Ks/. However...Multiple Models Show A Signal For At Least A Few Storms This Far South. Storms May Persist Through Much Of The Evening Over Western And Central Sd/Neb.


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