Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Jun 15


Primary Corridor Of Mid Level Height Falls Will Spread Across The
Nrn Plains Into The Upper Ms Valley/Nwrn Ontario Saturday Ahead Of
Deamplifying Short-Wave Trough That Should Ultimately Be Absorbed
Into The Deeper Ern Canadian Upper Trough. This Feature Should
Prove Mostly Responsible For Ewd Surge To Cold Front That Is
Expected To Extend Across Nwrn Wi...Swwd Into Sern Mn/Cntrl Ia At

While Boundary Layer May Struggle To Warm Appreciably Across
This Region...Sufficient Buoyancy And Modest Deep Layer Shear Are
Expected To Support A Few Strong/Severe Thunderstorms As
Temperatures Approach 80f. Convection Is Expected To Initiate
Rather Early In The Period...Possibly By Early Afternoon. This
Activity Is Expected To Shift East Along Srn Fringe Of Stronger Wly
Flow Within The Base Of Aforementioned Shortwave Trough. Primary
Severe Threats Are Hail/Wind.

Another Feature That May Ultimately Encourage More Significant
Convection Is A Weak Short-Wave Trough Currently Located Over The
Srn Plains. Associated Mid Level Speed Max Is Forecast To Lift
Nnewd Into Ern Ks By 18z...Intensifying To Near 60kt By 16/00z Over
Nrn Mo. Early Morning Convection Will Likely Influence Convective
Initiation Later In The Day As Ongoing Mcs Along The Ia/Mo Border
Should Leave An Outflow Boundary That May Retard Daytime Heating.

Latest Thinking Is Greatest Sfc Heating Will Occur Across Ks Into
Nwrn Mo. Thunderstorms Should Develop By Mid Afternoon Ahead Of
Short-Wave Trough Across The Warming/Destabilizing Airmass Over Nern Ks/Wrn Mo. This Activity Should Then Spread/Develop Enewd In
Conjunction With Ejecting Short-Wave. Shear Profiles Favor Deep
Rotating Storms And Isolated Supercells Are Possible...Including A
Few Tornadoes. Hail/Wind May Also Accompany This Activity As It
Spreads Across Nrn Mo Into Sern Ia/Wcntrl Il.

Central Plains...

While Weak Upper Riding Is Expected Across The Srn/Cntrl Rockies
Saturday There Is Reason To Believe Significant Convection Will
Evolve Off The East Slopes Of The Cntrl Rockies Into The Upslope
Regions Of The High Plains. Early In The Period Nely Boundary Layer
Flow Should Be Established Across Nern Co With Ely Component
Expected To Increase During The Day Against The Front Range.

Moist Upslope Flow And Strong Low Level Heating Will Encourage
Thunderstorm Development By 22z. Deep Layer Shear Is More Than
Adequate For Supercells And Hail/Wind Along With Isolated Tornadoes Can Be Expected.

Both The Nam And Gfs Suggest A Fair Number Of Storms Will Ultimately Evolve Across Nern Co Into Nwrn Ks Where An Mcs Could Mature During The Evening Hours.

With Llj Expected To Increase Across The High Plains From The Tx Panhandle Into Wrn Ks This Complex Of Storms Should Propagate Sewd During The Overnight Hours.

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