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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Jun 1

Tx To The Oh Valley Today Through Early Tonight...

The Previously Closed Midlevel Low Is In The Process Of Evolving
Into An Open Wave Which Will Progress From The Upper Ms Valley And Central Plains This Morning To The Great Lakes And Oh Valley By
Sunday Morning. An Associated Surface Low Will Develop Ewd From Ern Mn To Nrn Lower Mi...While A Trailing Cold Front Moves Sewd Across Tx/Ok As Well As The Mid Ms And Lower Oh Valleys.

While The Surface Cold Front Will Be A Focus For Possible Thunderstorm Development Today...The Pre-Frontal Warm Sector Has Been Altered Substantially By Widespread Overnight Convection. The Outflow Boundary From The Storms Extends From Se Ok Across Wrn/Nrn Ar To Nw Tn And Wrn Ky...With A More Diffuse Convective Boundary/Cold Pool Extending Nnewd Across Se Indiana And Wrn Oh.

The Richer Boundary Layer Moisture /Dewpoints In The Low 70s F/ And Stronger Instability /Mlcape Of 2000-3000 J Per Kg/ Is Expected
Along And S Of The Composite Outflow Boundary From Tx To The
Arklamiss Today.

It Appears That The Ongoing Storms Will Continue To Sag Sewd With The Outflow Boundary...And New Storm Development Is Expected This Afternoon Along The Boundary Or In The Adjacent Warm Sector From Ne Tx Across Srn And Ern Ar To Nw Ms And Sw Tn. The Motion Of The Cold Pool Will Tend To Displace The New Storm Development Farther Away From The Belt Of Stronger Mid-Upper
Flow...With Deep-Layer Vertical Shear Becoming Marginal For
Supercells.

This...Along With Diminished Midlevel Lapse Rates With Newd Extent...Suggests That The Risk For Very Large Hail A Little Too Low To Warrant A Significant Severe Area. Likewise...Low-Level Shear Will Not Be Particularly Strong Where Instability Is Stronger... Thus The Tornado Risk Appears To Be Marginal.

Farther N...Air Mass Recovery Across Mo/Il/Indiana Will Be Hampered
By Clouds And Outflow With The Ongoing Storms. Will Maintain Low
Severe Probabilities Behind The Initial Pre-Frontal Storms In Case
There Are Pockets Of Stronger Destabilization Coincident With The
Belt Of Stronger Midlevel Flow/Vertical Shear Later This Afternoon
/Along The Cold Front/.


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