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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Jul 6

In Mid-Upper Levels...Basic And Longstanding Pattern Of Anticyclones
Over Swrn Conus And Wrn N Atlc Will Persist Through Period...But
With Some Subtle Shifts.

Anticyclone Now Over Az/Nm Should Migrate Ewd And Begin To Bridge With Bermuda High Via Col Over Lower Ms Valley.

Troughing Now Analyzed From Wi-Mo-La To Wrn Gulf Will Deform/ Split With Nrn Branch Dominated By Weak Circulation And Accompanying Vorticity Max Now Over Mo. This Feature Should Move
Ewd Across Remainder Ern Mo And Srn Il By 7/12z. Srn Branch Should Undergo Episodic Wwd Drifting Over La Gulf Coast Region And Adjoining Waters.

At Sfc...Broad Zone Of Lee Troughing Now Analyzed From Ern Mt To
Nern Nm Is Expected To Consolidate At Least Two Principal Sfc Lows
By Mid-Late Aftn...

1. Over E-Central Nd...With Inverted Trough And Weak Frontal Zone
Extending Nwd Across Ern Nd. This Low Should Move Or Re-Develop
Newd Across Nrn Mn Overnight.

2. Over Central High Plains In Mck/Gld/Itr Area...Along Srn Branch
Of Same Trough/Weak Front...And Remaining Over This Region Through Rest Of Period.

Nrn Plains/Mn...

Scattered Tstms In Clusters And Bands Should Develop During Aftn And Move Ewd To Sewd Across Outlook Area...Offering Risk Of Damaging Gusts And Large Hail. Svr Wind Will Be Main Concern With Any Forward-Propagational Clusters Or Bows That Evolve From Early Activity And Surge Esewd-Sewd. Hail Potential...And Mrgl/ Conditional Tornado Probabilities Dependent On Storm-Scale
Factors...Should Occur With Relatively Discrete/Sustained Cells
During Aftn Before Any Substantial Upscale Aggregation Occurs.

More Strongly Heated/Mixed Air And Weaker Shear Will Occur With Swd Extent Across Sd Into Nrn Neb...As Well As Stronger Capping. Srn Extent Of Threat Accordingly Appears Rather Nebulous Attm...But
Conditionally May Extend Into Portions Sern Sd/Ia/Neb Before
Boundary Layer Becomes Too Stable To Support Sfc-Based Activity.

Nern Conus...

Hail Near Svr Limits And Isolated Damaging Gusts May Occur Before
Activity Weakens During Evening.


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