Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Jul 20

Oh Valley To Nrn New England...

Weak Height Falls Are Expected To Spread Across Much Of The Upper Oh Valley Into New England During The Day Saturday In Association With An Ejecting Mid Level Speed Max Across Qb.

Associated Cold Front Should Sag Swd Across The Great Lakes With A Stronger Push Expected Across The Nern U.S. A Broad Zone Of Low Level Confluence Should Extend Across Oh...Newd Through Pa/Ny Into Nrn New England During The Afternoon Hours. Within This Zone There Should Be Sufficient Low Level Convergence For Sct Thunderstorms As Boundary Layer Warms And Sfc Temperatures Rise Through The Upper 70s To Near 80f.

While Buoyancy Is Not Expected To Be Particularly Strong...Sbcape Should Exceed 1500 J/Kg And Modest Deep Layer Shear Will Prove Supportive Of Organized Multi-Cell Updrafts...And Perhaps Even A Few Weak Supercells Over New England Where Shear Is Expected To Be A Bit Stronger. Current Thinking Is Locally Damaging Winds Could Accompany The Strongest Storms Along With Marginally Severe Hail.

Loss Of Daytime Heating Is Expected To Promote Convective Weakening During The Evening Hours.

Central Plains...

Nwly Flow Is Expected To Strengthen At Mid Levels Across The Cntrl
Plains Saturday...Especially Across Sd/Neb Where 500mb Flow May
Approach 30kt By Late Afternoon. Weak Sfc Low Should Respond To
This Increasing Flow Aloft And Drop Swd Across The Black Hills
Region Into Wrn Neb By 21/00z. As A Result...Warm Advection Regime Will Gradually Increase Across The Cntrl Plains While A Weak Llj Responds Along Ern Plume Of Steeper Lapse Rates.

There Is Increasing Confidence That Warm Advection Will Be Instrumental In Early Morning Elevated Convection Across Sd...Some Of It Might Produce Marginally Severe Hail. During The Afternoon Stronger Updrafts Should Develop Along Weak Wind Shift Where Shear Profiles Will Support Deep Rotating Updrafts. Sct Supercells And Strong Multi-Cell Clusters Should Evolve Across This Region By 21z And Hail/Wind Can Be Expected With Sewd Moving Convection.

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