Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Jul 13

Nrn Plains...

Greatest Confidence In Severe Hail/Wind Occurrence Exists Across
Portions Of Far Ern Mt Into Wrn Nd In The Late Afternoon Into
Evening. Here...Convergence Along The Next Frontal Surge Coupled
With Strong Diabatic Heating Should Result In Isolated To Widely
Scattered Storms. Strong Deep-Layer Speed Shear Will Yield Elongated Straight-Line Hodographs In The Mid/Upper-Levels Which Could Favor A Couple Of Splitting Supercell Structures. However...Large Surface Temperature/Dew Point Spreads Should Lead To Outflow-Dominant Convection That May Consolidate Into A Short-Line Segment And Likely Mitigate Appreciable Tornado Potential.

Farther E/Se...A More Conditional Severe Risk Exists Along The Decaying Surface Front. Operational Guidance Are Quite Consistent In Depicting Increasing Convection By Evening Owing To A Moderate Strengthening Of The Llj And/Or Downstream Evolution Of High Plains Afternoon Storms. This Might Result In Multicell Clusters/ Transient Supercells Capable Of Producing Severe Wind/Hail.

Lower Oh Valley To The Southeast...

Steep Low/Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should Yield Isolated To Widely Scattered Convection. A Few Storms May Generate Severe Hail And Localized Strong Winds. Farther Se Of The Mid-Level Cold Pocket...A Belt Of Confluent Mid-Level S/Selys May Result In Sufficient Deep-Layer Shear For A Few Multicell Clusters Producing Localized Damaging Winds.

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