Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Feb 9

As Amplified Upper Ridging West Of The Pacific Coast Builds
Northeastward Into Western Canada...A Significant Short Wave
Trough...Now Digging Into Northern British Columbia/Alberta...
Appears Likely To Turn More Sharply Southward Toward The Northern
Rockies Today.

As This Occurs...Another Vigorous Short Wave Impulse Is Forecast To Lift Out Of Broader Scale Southwestern U.S. Upper Troughing.

Phasing Of This Latter Feature With A Belt Of Westerlies Emerging From The Subtropical Eastern Pacific Is Already Underway...And Very Strong West Southwesterly Mid/High Level Flow Is Expected To Gradually Overspread Much Of The Central And Southern Plains.

Late This Afternoon Into Tonight...Models Suggest That A Cyclonic
500 Mb Jet Streak On The Order Of 100 Kt Will Nose Across The
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Region Into The Central Plains.

This Appears Likely To Be Accompanied By Significant Surface Cyclogenesis Across Eastern Colorado Into South Central Nebraska...With A Trailing Cold Front Advancing East Of The Central/Southern Rockies Into The Central/Southern Plains.

At The Same Time...Guidance Is Suggestive That A Series Of Less
Prominent Speed Maxima Associated With The Subtropical Jet Will
Propagate East Northeastward Along An Axis Near/South Of The Texas Big Bend...Toward The Lower Mississippi Valley.

Central/Southern Plains...

The Evolving Large-Scale Pattern...In Many Respects...Is Typical Of
One That Might Be Accompanied By A Significant Increase In Severe
Weather Potential To The Lee Of The Rockies.

However...The Boundary Layer Over The Northwestern Gulf Of Mexico Is Not Particularly Moist Or Deep...And A Substantive Inland Moisture Return Is Expected To Be Slow To Develop...Particularly Near The Surface...In The Wake Of Recent Low-Level Cooling.

The Nam/Sref Suggest That Even Rather Modest Mid/Upper 50s Surface Dew Points May Not Reach Portions Of The Texas South Plains Until At Least Late Afternoon/Early Evening. And Better Boundary Layer Moistening/Destabilization Probably Will Remain Well South Of The Stronger Mid-Level Height Falls Overspreading The Central Plains.

Even With Limited Moisture...Steepening Lapse Rates/Strong Forcing
For Upward Vertical Motion May Be Sufficient To Support Vigorous
Low-Topped Convective Development...Probably In A Broken
Line...Roughly Near/East Of The Colorado/Kansas Border... Southward Into The Texas Panhandle...During The 21-00z Time Frame.

It Does Appear That There May Be A Window Of Opportunity For Better Coupling Of Low-Level Moistening/Destabilization And Stronger Lift...On The Developing Dry Line Across Parts Of The Eastern Texas
Panhandle/Northwest Texas...For Somewhat More Vigorous Storm
Development. This May Include Potential For Supercells With A Risk
For Tornadoes...In The Presence Of Sizable Clockwise Curved
Low-Level Hodographs.

Thereafter...Evolution Of Convective Development And Convective
Potential Remain A Bit Unclear. It Is Possible That The Southern
Flank Of The Initial Convective Activity May Persist And Grow Upscale ...Or New Development May Occur Off To The East Southeast...Within Strengthening Low-Level Warm Advection Across Northwest Into North Central Texas Later During The Evening/Overnight Hours.

This Activity Could Be Enhanced By Further Destabilization Associated With Continuing Slow Moisture Return...And Divergent Upper Flow Between The Polar And Subtropical Jet Axes. Given The Strength Of The Deep Layer Mean Flow...Damaging Wind Gusts May Be The Primary Severe Threat...Though Thermodynamic Profiles May Be Supportive Of Large Hail.

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