Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Feb 23

An Upper Level Shortwave Trough Located Over The Srn High Plains
This Morning Will Progress Enewd Into Ar/Ms By Evening...And Then
Enter The Mid Atlantic Region Toward The End Of The Forecast Period.

As This Takes Place...Surface Low Pressure Will Deepen This
Afternoon/Night Offshore From Nc/Va...And Then Lift Newd Offshore
From Srn New England. A Cold Front Will Extend Swwd Along The Nc/Sc Coast...And Then Wswwd Into Srn Ga And The Fl Panhandle. As The Previously Mentioned Upper Trough Approaches The Mid Atlantic Tonight...The Cold Front Will Advance Swd Into The Nrn Gulf Of
Mexico And Nrn Fl.

Fl Panhandle Into Srn Al/Ga...

At 12z...A Quasi-Stationary Front Was Positioned From 30 S Of Sav In
Sern Ga To 20 Ssw Of Cew In The Fl Panhandle.

Mid 60s Dewpoints Residing Along And S Of The Boundary Combined With Surface Temperatures In The 70s May Locally Boost Mucape Values To Around1000 J/Kg During The Afternoon...Which Will Continue To Support Isolated To Scattered Thunderstorms Invof The Front.

Though Low-Level Flow Is Forecast To Veer And Weaken During The Day...50+ Kt Mid/Upper-Level Unidirectional Winds Will Yield Favorably Strong Deep-Layer Shear Profiles For Bowing Storm Structures. This Convective Mode Combined With A Relatively High Pw Airmass Will Result In A Risk For Isolated Damaging Winds. In Addition...Stronger Storms May Produce Hail Approaching Svr Levels. However...Given The Expected Quasi-Linear Mode Of Convection And Marginal Lapse Rates...Hail Probabilities Will Not Be Introduced Attm.

Coastal Nc...

Surface Baroclinic Zone Extends From A Weak Area Of Low Pressure
Located Over The Outer Banks Of Nc Sswwd To Aprox 65 Sse Of Ilm.

Short-Term Model Guidance Indicates Transient Areas Of Weak Low
Pressure Will Progress Newd Along This Boundary Through Early To Mid Afternoon Before A Surface Cyclone Consolidates And Deepens Offshore From The Mid Atlantic Region. Given Coastal Areas Of Nc Will Continue To Experience Rainfall Through The Morning Hours... And Inland Advection Of Higher Theta-E Air Is Forecast To Be
Minimal...Boundary Layer Destabilization Does Not Appear Likely.
Thus...The 5 Percent Wind Probability Has Been Removed.


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