Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Feb 2

Upper Level Pattern Will Begin To Flatten Through The Period As The
Large Upper Trough Over The Cntrl And Ern Conus Continues To
Progress Ewd And The Upper Ridge Over The Wrn Conus Deamplifies.

Primary Features During The Period Are Two Shortwave Troughs.

One Will Move From The Cntrl Plains Across The Se States And Off The Carolina Coast While Another Progresses Quickly Sewd From The Nrn Plains Into The Oh Valley.

Early Morning Surface Analysis Places A Sfc Low Over W Tx With A
Weak Pressure Trough Extending Newd To Another Area Of Low Pressure Across Il. As The Cntrl Plains Shortwave Moves Ewd Today...This Weak Trough Will Also Progress Ewd...Pushing A Frontal Boundary Across Tx And The Lwr Ms Valley.

Scant Low-Level Moisture And Stable Conditions Will Largely Prohibit
Tstm Development Across The Conus.

Some Shallow Convection May Occur Across The Southeast States As The Cntrl Plains Shortwave Trough Move Through But Poor Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should Keep Profiles Too Warm For Thunder. As This Shortwave Trough Continues Ewd...Some Tstms Are Possible Off The N Carolina Coast After 00z.


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