Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Feb 16

A Large Upper Trough Is Forecast To Shift Ewd Across The Ern U.S.
This Period...While Upstream Deamplification Occurs As A Wrn Ridge
Is Suppressed With Time By A Short-Wave Trough Progressing Esewd Across The Pac Nw Region.

At The Surface...Cyclogenesis Is Forecast Over The Gulf Stream With
Time...As The Main Upper Trough Shifts Ewd Toward/Into The Wrn
Atlantic. As This Occurs...Increased Low-Level Cold Advection Will
Prevail Across The Sern States.

Thunder Threat Remains Low Across The Entire U.S. This Period... With The Most Likely Area For The Occurrence Of A Few Lightning Strikes Still Residing Over The Sc/Ga Region. As Lapse Rates Aloft Steepen With The Advance Of The Upper Trough...Low-Topped Convection May Produce A Sporadic Strike Or Two. However...With The Remainder Of The Thunder Potential Likely To Remain Offshore/Over The Gulf Stream...Will Maintain The Lack Of A 10% Thunder Area This Forecast.

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