May 23, 2013
Ern Tx/Ok To Ky/Tn Through Tonight...
Within A Broad Cyclonic Flow Regime Over The Conus...One Shortwave Trough Will Eject Enewd From The Great Lakes To New England...As An Upstream Trough Amplifies Over The Nrn/Central Rockies.
At The Surface...A Quasi-Stationary Front From Central Tx To The Lower Oh Valley This Morning Will Drift A Little To The N In Response To Pressure Falls Across The Central Plains. This Front Will Provide
The Primary Focus For Thunderstorm Development Through Tonight.
S Of The Slow-Moving Front...Boundary Layer Dewpoints Range From The Upper 50s Across Tn/Ky To The Mid-Upper 60s Along The Tx Coast. Daytime Heating In Cloud Breaks /Most Probable From E Central Tx Into Nw La/ And Midlevel Lapse Rates Of 6.5-7 C/Km Will Contribute To Mlcape Of 750-1250 J/Kg Along The Front This Afternoon. Though Forcing For Ascent Will Be Weak...A Few Thunderstorms May Develop Along The Boundary As Convective Inhibition Weakens By Mid-Late Afternoon.
The Degree Of Buoyancy Will Be Sufficient For A Low-Probability Risk For Organized Storms With Strong Gusts And Marginally Severe Hail...Given 30-40 Kt Effective Bulk Shear.
Overnight...The Threat For Elevated Thunderstorms Will Increase Across Ern Ok And Ar In A Strengthening Waa Regime. Elevated
Instability And Sufficient Cloud Layer Vertical Shear May Support A
Few Storms Capable Of Producing Marginally Severe Hail.
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