Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Dec 29

Synopsis...

Moisture Channel Imagery Shows Two Progressive Belts Of Cyclonic
Flow Aloft Over Conus...

1. From Central Plains Across Arklatex...Mid-South And Srn
Appalachians...Associated With Shortwave Troughs Over Central Ky/Mid Tn Region And Over Ok. Leading Vorticity Max Will Move Newd To Inland Mid-Atlc Region By 00z...While Trailing Feature Moves Ewd
Over Srn Appalachians.

2. Around Mid-Upper Cyclone Centered Offshore N-Central Ca.
Associated Shortwave Trough Should Proceed Sewd Over Srn Ca By End Of Period...As Upstream Perturbation Now Over Bc Digs Ssewd Across Wa/Ore.

At Sfc...Cyclone Developing Attm Invof Coastal Ern Sc Is Fcst To
Deepen As It Moves Newd Roughly Along Nc Coast This Morning Then Out Over Atlc Waters S And E Of Cape Cod This Evening. As This Occurs..Cold Front Now Over Sern Ga...Nwrn Fl Peninsula And Ern Gulf Will Sweep Esewd Across Remainder Fl.

Fl...

Cold Front Is Preceded By Low-Level Convergence Line That Has Been Associated With Tstms Over Ern Gulf All Night Prior.

Overall...This Activity Has Shown Gradual Weakening Trend While Apchg W Coast Of Fl And Moving Inland Into More Stable...Lower-Thetae Air Mass Than What Was Available In Its Gulf Inflow Region. Strongest Remaining Portion Of This Activity Should Move Through Tbw-Dab Region By 15z. Isolated Gusts Near Svr Limits Or Small/Brief Tornado Cannot Be Ruled Out...Given Remaining Low-Level Shear Evident In 12z Tbw/Jax Raobs...Though Low-Level Winds Will Weaken With Time.

S Through E Of I-4 Corridor...
Svr Potential Is Fcst To Diminish With Time Today. Diabatic Sfc Heating Will Boost Buoyancy In Warm Sector Over Central/Srn Fl...With Dew Points 60s To Low 70s F Offsetting Weak Lapse Rates Above Boundary Layer Just Enough For 500-1000 J/Kg Mlcape. However...Strongest Isallobaric Forcing Related To Deepening Atlc Low Will Start Well N Of Area And Move Farther Away...Leaving Behind Tendency For Veering And Weakening Of Near-Sfc Winds With Time Over Remainder Prefrontal Fl. This Will Reduce Low-Level Convergence And Shear...Limiting Potential Coverage/Intensity Of Convection After Mid-Late Morning.


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