Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Aug 17

Mean Long Wave Trough Is Expected To Remain Anchored Across The Ms Valley Region Through The Day1 Period While Upper High Holds Across The Swrn U.S. With Little Change Expected Over The Next 36 Hr Subtle Differences Regarding The Prospect For Robust Convection Will Be Noted Compared To Friday.

One Of The More Interesting Features That Could Influence The Cntrl
Gulf Coast Will Be The Nwd Advancement Of Tropical Feature Currently Centered Roughly 22n/90w. Latest Short Range Model Guidance Suggests At Least A Piece Of This Feature Will Shear Nwd Toward The Cntrl Gulf Coast With 850mb Flow Expected To Increase Markedly Early Sunday Morning. It/S Not Particularly Clear Whether The More Wwd Solution /Nam/ Or The Gfs Is More Accurate. Given The Uncertainty Will Introduce 2 Percent Tornado Probs To Account For Increasing Low Level Shear Coincident With Tropical Surge.

Isolated-Sct Thunderstorms Are Once Again Expected To Develop Across The High Plains Of Ern Nm Within Weak Low Level Upslope Flow Regime...But One That Is Modestly Sheared Through A Deep Layer. Latest Nam Suggests Rapid Intense Heating Will Contribute To
Steepening Lapse Rates That Should Support Convection By 21-22z.
Gusty Winds And Mostly Marginally Severe Hail Could Accompany The
Strongest Activity.

Weak Short-Wave Trough Is Expected To Translate Across Wa/Ore Into Wrn Mt Late In The Period. A Narrow Corridor Of Somewhat Higher Mid Level Moisture/Ascent Is Expected To Spread Across The Id Panhandle Into Wrn Mt. Forecast Soundings Exhibit Strong Deep Layer Shear And Adequate Instability For At Least Isolated High Based Thunderstorms Across This Region...A Few Of Which Could Produce Hail/Wind. Given The Meager Moisture Will Maintain 5 Percent Severe.

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