Nrn High Plains Into Sd Through Tonight...
A Weak Shortwave Trough Will Progress Ewd/Esewd Over Sd Today.
Weak Elevated Convection Precedes The Wave This Morning Across Wrn Sd...And There Will Be Some Potential For Intensification Of The
Storms During The Day In Response To Surface Heating And Residual 60+ F Dewpoints On The Srn Fringe Of The Ongoing Convection.
Otherwise...Isolated Strong/Severe Storms May Form This Afternoon
Across E Central/Se Mt In Association With A Separate Shortwave
Trough Rotating Sewd From Saskatchewan.
In Either Case...The Combination Of Marginal-Moderate Buoyancy And Vertical Shear Could Support Organized/Supercell Storms With Some Risk For Isolated Large Hail And Damaging Gusts. Attm...The Confidence In Either Scenario Is Too Low To Warrant An Upgrade To A Categorical Slight Risk.
Pac Nw/Nrn Rockies This Afternoon Into Early Tonight...
A Closed Midlevel Low Will Continue To Drift Nwd Along The Ore
E Of The Low...A Dry Slot Will Likewise Spread Slowly Nwd From The Great Basin To The Interior Pac Nw And Nrn Rockies.
Storm Development Is Expected Again Today In The Zone Of Ascent Within The Moisture Gradient On The Leading Edge Of The Dry Slot...From Extreme Nrn Ca Across Central Ore To Wa. Weak-Moderate Buoyancy Will Develop In This Corridor This Afternoon...Coincident With Sufficient Deep-Layer Sly/Sely Vertical Shear For Organized Multicell Clusters...And Perhaps Some Marginal Supercell Structures. The Strongest Storms Will Be Capable Of Producing Isolated Marginally Severe Hail And Strong/Damaging Gusts This Afternoon Into Early Tonight.
A Weak Speed Max Will Move Ewd To The Appalachians Today...With The Downstream Zone Of Ascent Represented By The Area Of Weak Ongoing Convection Spreading Ewd From Wv This Morning.
A Belt Of 20-30 Kt Low-Midlevel Flow With The Speed Max Will Overspread Va/Nc Today...While Moist Profiles And Poor Lapse Rates Limit The Potential For Strong Downdrafts. The Net Result Should Be A Scenario Where Storms Increase In Coverage By Midday Along The Leading Edge Of The Thicker Clouds In Va/Nc...And Then Spread Ewd Through The Afternoon With The Potential For Isolated Strong /Damaging Outflow Gusts.
Ne Tx To Central Ar This Afternoon...
A Low-Amplitude Midlevel Trough Over Mo/Ar/Ok Will Drift Ewd Today ...While A Surface Front Remains Quasi-Stationary From Ne Tx Across Central Ar.
Surface Heating S Of The Ongoing Storms In Ar...As Well As Low-Level Convergence Along The Front...Will Support Scattered Thunderstorm Development This Afternoon.
Though Vertical Shear Will Be Weak S Of The Boundary...Mlcape Aoa 2000 J/Kg And Pw Values Aoa 1.75 Inches Will Support Strong Updrafts/Precipitation Loading...While Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates And Some Drying Aloft Will Result In Large Dcape And The Potential For A Few Strong/Damaging Downbursts.
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