Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Apr 6

A Progressive...Quasi-Zonal Pattern Will Exist Over The Conus
Through The D1 Period.

Multiple Vorticity Maxima Are Present Within This Regime...The Most Notable Of Which Will Translate From The Nrn Plains Into The Upper Great Lakes By Sunday Morning.

A Surface Low Over Sern Sd/Swrn Mn As Of 12z Will Develop Enewd In Tandem With This Vorticity Maximum...While A Trailing Cold Front Settles Swd Through The Nrn Plains...Upper Ms Valley...And Upper Midwest. A Pre-Frontal Trough --Currently From The Surface Low Swwd Into The Srn High Plains-- Will Migrate Ewd Into The Oh Valley By Tonight.

Upper Midwest Into Mid Ms Valley...

Despite The Presence Of A Rather Dry Boundary Layer...A Plume Of
Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates Advecting Ewd From The Mid Mo Valley Will Combine With Daytime Heating To Yield A Weakly Unstable Air Mass Later Today Ahead Of The Pre-Frontal Trough.

Height Falls/Dcva Coupled With Low-Level Convergence Invof Of The Surface Low And Associated Trough Will Foster A Band Of Showers And Widely Scattered Tstms Late This Afternoon From Srn Wi To E-Cntrl Mo. The Strongest Storms Will Be Capable Of Gusty Winds And Small Hail. Expect Storm Coverage To Decrease By Late Evening Into Tonight As The Boundary Layer Cools And Stabilizes.

Nrn Intermountain Region...

A Vorticity Maximum Currently Over Wrn Wa Will Translate Enewd
Across The Region Today With An Accompanying Pocket Of Cold Midlevel Temperatures Promoting Steepening Lapse Rates And The Potential For Weak Instability. Forcing For Ascent Attendant To This Feature And Orographic Influences Will Support Isolated Tstm Development From This Afternoon Through This Evening.

Elsewhere...Isolated Tstms Will Be Possible This Afternoon And
Evening Invof Of A Lee Low Developing Along The Raton Mesa Where
Steep Low To Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Promote A Weakly Unstable

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