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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Apr 13

Se La Coast...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Ewd Across Nrn Mexico Today
Approaching The Tx Gulf Coast Tonight. Ahead Of The Upper-Level
Trough...Moisture Advection Will Take Place Across The Tx And La
Gulf Coasts As A Low-Level Jet Becomes Focused Over The Wrn Gulf Of Mexico.

Model Forecasts Develop An Area Of Thunderstorm Activity About 200 Statute Miles South Of The La Coast As The Low-Level Jet Begins To Develop Late This Evening. This Convection Expands In Coverage And Moves Toward The La Coast After Midnight. By Late In The Period ...It Appears A Cluster Of Thunderstorms Will Move Into Coastal Sections Of Srn La.

Forecast Soundings Late Tonight Near The La Coast Southwest Of New Orleans Gradually Moisten Low-Levels As Sfc Dewpoints Increase Into The Lower To Mid 60s F. In Addition...Forecast Soundings Along The La Coast After 06z/Sun Increase 0-6 Km Shear Into The 50 To 60 Kt Range And 0-1 Km Shear To Around 25 Kt As The Low-Level Jet Approaches The La Coast.

These Factors Along With Lcl Heights Below 1000 Meters Agl May Be Enough For A Marginal Tornado Threat With Cells That Can Obtain Rotation And Move Inland From The Gulf Of Mexico. Strong Wind Gusts Will Also Be Possible With The More Intense Discrete Cells.

The Center Of The Low-Level Jet Is Forecast To Still Be South Of The La Coast At 12z/Sun Suggesting The Strongest Low-Level Shear Will Still Be Offshore. For This Reason...Will Keep The Tornado And Wind Damage Probabilities At 2 Percent And 5 Percent Respectively.


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