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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Mon Sep 2

Have Made Minor Changes To 1630z Outlook...Namely To Shift Back Edge Of Higher Severe Probs East Across Western Ny. Latest Wv Imagery Clearly Depicts Short-Wave Trough Passage And Radar Data Supports This With Deep Convection Now Approaching 77w Longitude. While There Are Two Main Clusters Of Severe That Have Developed...Ern Lake Ontario And Over Nwrn Pa...A Gradual Upward Trend Is Expected With Convection Ahead Of Short-Wave.

Otherwise...Earlier Thoughts Regarding Convective Evolution Remain
With Much Of Tstm Activity Diurnally Driven Across The Conus.

Prev Discussion...

A Large Upper Ridge Is Forecast To Persist Across The Rockies And
Adjacent Portions Of The Plains States This Period...Flanked By Two
Troughs -- One Near The Pac Coast And The Second Moving Slowly Ewd Across The Great Lakes/Northeast.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Will Move Across The Pac Nw Ahead Of The Wrn Upper System...While A Second Front Crosses The Northeast/Oh Valley Region In Conjunction With The Advance Of The Ern Upper Trough. The Ern U.S. Front In Particular Will Focus The Main Area Of Severe Weather Risk This Period.

Ny/Pa Vicinity...

As Upper Troughing Gradually Increases Across The Region...Weak
Cooling Aloft And Sustained Large-Scale Ascent Will Remain Favorable Pre-Conditions For An Increase In Convection This Afternoon. Fairly Widespread Clouds Will Limit Heating To Some Degree Across Most Of The Northeast...But Relatively Diminished Cloud Cover From Srn Ny Swwd Across Parts Of Pa Should Allow Moderate Destabilization Of The Moist Pre-Frontal Airmass. As Such...An Increase In Storms Along/Ahead Of The Cold Front Is Expected This Afternoon.

Flow Aloft Remains Modest...But As The Upper Low Centered Over Srn Ontario Slowly Advances...Some Increase In Wly Flow Aloft Is
Expected -- Which May Aid In Potential For Storms To Organize. Eventually...A Couple Of Stronger Storm Clusters Appear Likely To Evolve...With Associated/Locally Enhanced Potential For Marginally Severe Wind Gusts. Given This Potential...A Slight Risk/15% Probability Wind Area Is Being Introduced For This Afternoon And Early Evening. Convection Should Diminish Into Sunset And Beyond In Conjunction With The Loss Of Diurnal Heating.

Mid Oh/Tn Valleys Wswwd Into The Arklatex Region...

Ongoing Convection Along A Slowly Sagging Cold Front Should Increase In Coverage With Time...As Diurnal Heating Of A Moist Pre-Frontal Airmass Continues. Weak Shear Is Evident Across The Area...Which Should Limit Overall Organization/Intensity Of Storms.

However...A Few Stronger Storms/Storm Clusters Capable Of Producing Isolated Stronger Wind Gusts Will Likely Occur -- Thus A Broad/Low-Probability Risk Area Remains Across This Region.


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