The Only Change To The Outlook For This Issuance Is To Add Parts Of Se Mo Into Thunder Where Thunderstorms Are Ongoing. Otherwise...The Slight Risk Area From East Tx To Wrn Ms Looks To Be Placed Well. No Adjustments Are Made To The Slight Risk Area. The Remainder Of The Outlook Appears To Be On Track As Well.
In Mid-Upper Levels...Broadly Cyclonic Flow With Several Embedded
Shortwaves Is Evident Across Much Of Central And Nrn Conus.
Shortwave Trough Initially Analyzed From Sd-Co Is Fcst To Turn
Ewd...Reaching Ia By 00z...Then Becoming More Positively Tilted And
Weakening Somewhat. This Perturbation Should Reach Oh/Indiana By End Of Period. Moisture Channel Imagery Indicates Srn-Stream
Perturbation Over N-Central/Nwrn Mex...Which Will Move Enewd And
Cross S Tx Around 03-09z Time Frame.
At Sfc...Cold Front Was Analyzed At 15z From Low Over S-Central Ok
Swwd Across Extreme N-Central Tx To Portions Permian Basin.
Quasistationary Front -- Which Will Advance Sewd As Cold Front Later
-- Was Evident From Low Newd Into Nwrn Ar Ozarks. Diffuse Warm
Front Extended Sewd Across Ne Tx And Swrn Ms.
Low Is Expected To Move Sewd Across Ne Tx To Nwrn/W-Central La Through 06z...Weakening Overnight. Cold Front Should Advance Sewd To Reach Central Ar...Extreme Nwrn La...And S-Central Tx By 00z. Front Should Extend From Near Bro Newd Across Swrn La...Central Ms...Nrn Al And Srn Appalachians By 12z.
Arklatex Region To Portions Lower Ms Valley...
Tstms Are Possible Throughout Remainder Afternoon Hours In Ongoing Convective Plume From Nwrn Gulf Across Portions La/Ms.
Some Of This Activity May Become Sfc-Based During Next Few
Hours...Especially Over La Where Shallow/Near-Sfc Stable Layer
Evident In 12z Lch Raob Can Be Eroded By Pockets Of Enhanced Sfc
Diabatic Heating. Limiting Factors For Organized Svr Potential Will
Include Messy Convective Mode...Modest Low-Level Flow...Diffuse Foci For Storm-Scale Lift... And Lack Of More Robust Deep Shear.
However...A Few Cells In This Regime May Produce Gusts/Hail Near Svr Levels.
Main Svr Threat Will Commence Late Aftn And Continue Into Evening
Over Categorical Risk Area...As Cold Front Impinges Upon
Increasingly Moist Warm Sector. Increasing Coverage/Intensity Of
Tstms Should Occur Near Front Around 00z...With Risks For Damaging Gusts And Ocnl Large Hail. Large-Scale Ascent And Deep Shear Each Will Increase Somewhat Through Evening...Given Projected Track Of Aforementioned Nrn- And Srn-Stream Shortwaves. Fcst Soundings Suggest Weak To No Warm-Sector Cinh This Afternoon Through About 03z...Increasing Thereafter...With Peak Mlcape Around 1200-1800 J/Kg Over E Tx And Wrn/Nrn La... Higher Farther Sw Over S Tx.
Tornado Potential Still Appears Mrgl...Mainly Near And E Of Weak Sfc
Low Where Near-Sfc Winds Will Remain Relatively Backed. Wind/Hail
Should Be Predominant Threats. Low-Level And Deep Shear Will Become Mrgl For Supercells...With 35-40 Kt Effective Shear Magnitudes Possible. However...Two Factors Will Limit Potential For Sustained Storm-Scale Rotation...
1. Weaknesses In Flow Generally Near Sfc And Between 700-500 Mb ...Based On Fcst Soundings...And
2. Fairly Quick Transition To Quasi-Linear Convective Mode Invof
Cold Front...Given Parallel Nature Of Flow Aloft With Respect To
Initially Separate Area Of Convection May Move Enewd Out Of Mex
Starting Around 00z...With Some Development Possible Over Sw Tx As Well...In Regime Of Large-Scale Dcva And Strengthening Low-Level Moisture With Ewd Extent. Stronger Antecedent Diabatic Heating And Favorable Moisture Will Lead To Greater Buoyancy Over This Area Than Farther Ne...But With Weak Low-Middle Level Winds Limiting Organized Svr Threat. Some Of This Activity May Link With Frontal Convection Late In Period Over Central/Se Tx.
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