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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Mon Jun 10

Previous Forecast Reasoning Remains On Track And Only Changes Made With The 20z Outlook Were To Include A Small 5 Percent Tornado Probability Across Portions Of Tn...And To Extend 10 Percent Thunder Line Slightly Ewd Across Wrn Ks.

Prev Discussion...

Il/Ind Upr Low Expected To Devolve Into An Open Trough As It
Continues E Into Oh By Eve And The Mid Atlantic States Early Tue.

Associated Belt Of Enhanced Mid-Lvl Flow Will Persist Over Tn
Today...And Overspread The Srn Appalachians...The Carolinas...And Va Later By Mid-Late Aftn. Ahead Of The Low...Low-Lvl Moisture Will
Continue To Spread Newd Into The The Mid-Atlantic States... With The
70 Deg F Isodrosotherm Reaching Se Pa/Srn Nj By Eve.

Sctd Tstms...Some Possibly Svr...Will Occur In The Moistening
Environment From Parts Of Ga Newd Into Pa/Nj. Other Strong To Svr
Storms May Occur Beneath The Upr Trough Over Parts Of Ky And Tn.

Farther W...Flat Upr Ridge Will Build E/Ne Across The Cntrl Plns... With Isold High-Based Storms Possible From Ern Co Into Wrn Ks.

On The Nw Flank Of The Ridge...A Belt Of Strong Zonal Flow Over
The Nrn Grt Basin/Nrn Rckys In Conjunction With A Passing Jet Streak May Support A Few Strong To Svr Aftn/Eve Storms Over Parts Of
Id...Wy...And Mt.

Ne Ga To Pa/Nj This Aftn/Eve...

Height Falls Associated With Progressive Upr Trough And Downstream Low-Lvl Confluence Should Support Development Of Numerous Bands And Small Clusters Of Tstms By Early Aftn In Moistening/Weakly-Capped Environment From Parts Of Ga/Sc Newd Into The Chesapeake Bay Region.

Area Hodographs...Already Seasonably Lengthy...May Further Lengthen As Belt Of 40-50 Kt Swly Mid-Lvl Flow Overspreads Region ...Suggesting Likelihood For Supercells/Lewps/Small Bows With
Narrow Swaths Of Dmgg Winds. While Low-Lvl Directional Shear Will
Remain Limited Except Near Diffuse Warm Front In Srn Pa/Ern
Md/De/Nj...It Will Be Sufficient For Tornadoes Given Moist Boundary
Layer. The Svr Threat Should Diminish With Nocturnal Cooling This
Eve/Early Tngt.

Middle/Ern Tn And Srn Ky This Aftn/Eve...

Satellite Suggests That Strong Sfc Heating Will Occur Over Parts Of
Tn And Ky Today...In Base Of Mid-Lvl Trough Where 40+ Kt Wly Flow And Cold Air Aloft Will Exist Atop Low-Lvl Theta-E Axis. Setup Appears Favorable For A Cluster Of Storms To Evolve Into One Or Two Bands That Could Include Embedded Supercells/Bowing Segments With Large Hail And...Especially Later This Aftn...Dmgg Wind.

Nrn Rckys Late This Aftn Into Tngt...

Sfc Heating...Cool Mid-Lvl Temps...And Large-Scale Ascent In
Entrance Region Of Jet Streak Moving From Nrn Mt Into Nrn Nd Should Support Sctd Tstms Mainly Over The Higher Terrain Of Ern Id...Nw Wy...And Sw Mt. While Instability Will Be Limited...50+ Kt Wswly
Deep Shear Will Be Favorable For Sustained Storms/Supercells. A Few Storms May Contain Locally Dmgg Wind And Possibly A Spot Or Two Of Hail.

Cntrl High Plns This Aftn/Eve...

Very Strong Sfc Heating Will Occur Over Ern Co...Se Wy...Wrn Neb... And Wrn Ks On Srn Edge Of The Wlys. While Moisture Will Remain
Limited...Relatively Cool Mid-Lvl Temps Will Yield Sizable Buoyancy.

Convergence Along Lee Trough Should Foster Wdly Sctd High-Based
Diurnal Storms. These Should Move E Or Ese Into The Eve...And May
Merge Into A Small Cluster Or Two With Isold Svr Wind Gusts And
Small Hail.

Another Area Of Storms May Form Along Separate Segment Of Lee Trough Over Ne Nm...Se Co...Sw Ks...And The Ok/Tx Panhandle
Region...Where Isold Strong Wind Gusts Also May Occur.


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