Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Mon Jan 28

Nw Tx/Wrn And Cntrl Ok/Se Ks/Wrn Mo...

An Upper-Level Trough Over The Intermountain West Will Move Ewd
Across The Four Corners Region Tonight.

Ahead Of The System...A Well-Developed Low-Level Jet Across The Srn Plains Will Transport Moisture Nwd Into Cntrl Ok...Se Ks And Wrn Mo Tonight.

Isolated Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible From Late This Evening Into The Overnight Period From Ne Ok Nnewd Across Se Ks Into Wrn Mo Along The Wrn Edge Of The Low-Level Jet.

This Activity Could Pose A Marginal Threat For Wind Damage And Hail Due To The Strong Shear Environment In Place. Further To The South Across Nw Tx And Cntrl Ok...Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Late Tonight Due To Increasing Lift Associated With As An 80 To 100 Kt Mid-Level Jet Moving Into The Srn Plains.

Forecast Soundings Tonight In Cntrl Ok Gradually Increase Instability Tonight With Mlcape Values Approaching 1000 J/Kg By The
09z To 12z Timeframe.

The Instability Will Compliment A Strongly Sheared Environment With 0-6 Km Shear Increasing To Around 70 Kt As The Mid-Level Jet Approaches The Region From The Southwest.

The Strong Shear Will Likely Support Storm Rotation As Cells Initiate
Late Tonight And Spread Ewd Across The Srn Plains. Although The
Storms May Be Somewhat Elevated...A Threat For Isolated Hail And
Wind Damage May Develop Especially If A Cluster Of Strong
Thunderstorms Can Organize By 12z As Is Suggested By The Gfs Model.

Nrn Mo/Ern Ia/Wrn Il And Far Sw Wi...

A Well-Developed 55 To 65 Kt Low-Level Jet Will Strengthen Tonight
Across Mo And Ia Helping Moisture To Gradually Increase Across The
Region.

Model Forecasts Develop Scattered Thunderstorms Late This Evening From Nrn Mo Newd Across Ern Ia On The Nose Of The Low-Level Jet And Spread This Convection Newd Across The Mid To Upper Ms Valley During The Overnight Period.

Forecasts Soundings In Ern Ia At 06 To 09z Increase Mucape Values To Around 1500 J/Kg With The Instability Concentrated Above 850 Mb Due To A Sharp Sfc Inversion. For This Reason...The Wind Damage Threat Should Be Limited But A Threat For Hail Could Exist Especially With Cells That Can Develop Rotation.


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