Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Mon Dec 17

Central Ky/Middle Tn And Vicinity This Afternoon/Evening...

Multiple Strong/Severe Storms Have Developed Within The Midlevel Dry Slot Associated With An Ejecting Shortwave Trough...And Ahead Of The Surface Cold Front. Surface Temperatures Have Warmed Into The Low 60s With Dewpoints Holding In The Low 50s...Beneath Midlevel Lapse Rates Of 7-7.5 C/Km And 500 Mb Temperatures Near -25 C. The Net Result Is An Environment With Mlcape Near 500 J/Kg And Straight Hodographs That Will Favor Low-Topped Supercells/ Clusters Capable Of Producing At Least Marginally Severe Hail And Occasional Strong Gusts This Afternoon. Once The Boundary Layer Begins To Stabilize This Evening...The Severe Threat Will Diminish.

Nrn Fl/Se Ga/Coastal Sc Through This Evening...

A Qlcs Continues To Move Ewd/Enewd Along A Rain-Reinforced Boundary Across Srn Ga/Sc. Limited Surface Heating In Cloud Breaks And A Midlevel Trough Ejecting Enewd From The Lower Ms Valley Will Help Maintain The Convection Through The Afternoon/ Evening As It Approaches The Se Ga And Sc Coasts. The Linear Nature Of The Convection And Strong/Mainly Unidirectional Wind Profiles Will Favor Damaging Gusts As The Primary Threat With Embedded Bowing Segments. However...A Couple Of Tornadoes Will Also Be Possible Where The Bowing Segments Interact With The Rain-Cooled Boundary Across Se Ga And Srn Sc.


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