Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Mon Dec 10

Sern La...Srn Ms...Parts Of Swrn And Cntrl Al...Far W-Cntrl Ga...

A Shortwave Upper Trough...Embedded Within Large-Scale Cyclonic Flow Situated Over The Conus...Is Forecast To Deamplify And Eject Newd Out Of The Plains Towards The Lower Great Lakes. Early Morning Ir Satellite And Lightning Data Show Tstms Developing Along And Ahead Of An Associated Cold Front...Extending From The Wrn Gulf Coast Nnewd Towards The Upper Oh River Valley At 13z. Additional Tstms Have Developed Along A Pre-Frontal Confluence Line Over Far Nwrn Ga...Nrn Al...Cntrl Ms...And Across Srn La.

Although The Strongest Forcing For Ascent Associated With The
Aforementioned Shortwave Trough Is Forecast To Move Well N Of The
Warm Sector...Tstm Development Should Persist Through This Afternoon From Srn La Newd Into The Srn Appalachians Along/Ahead Of The Ewd Moving Cold Front.

Morning Sfc Obs Show Moisture Within The Warm Sector Is Characterized By Dewpoints In The Upper 60s Along The Gulf Coast To Upper 50s-Lower 60s Across Nrn Al/Ga.

However...Widespread Cloud Cover And Modest Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Limit Instability... With Observed And Forecast Model Soundings Suggesting Mlcape Values Will Range From Near 300 J/Kg Across Nrn Al To Over 800 J/Kg In Srn La. Nevertheless...Both Deep-Layer And Low-Level Shear Will Be Sufficient /E.G. 25-35 Kts Of 0-1 Km Agl Shear/ For A Threat For Isolated Dmgg Wind Gusts And Perhaps A Tornado Or Two...Particularly Through The Late Morning Hours.

10/00z Suite Of High-Resolution Model Guidance...Including The
Experimental Spc-Sseo...Indicate Tstm Coverage Should Decrease This Afternoon Over The Southeast...As Midlevel Height Changes Trend Towards Neutral And Pre-Frontal Low-Level Flow Veers. Thus...The Potential For Dmgg Winds Should Become Increasingly Isolated Later This Afternoon.


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