Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Mon Aug 26

Sd/Nd Border Ewd To Central Mn And Wi Through Tonight...

Subtle Mid-Upper Speed Maxima Will Continue To Rotate From The
Rockies/Nrn High Plains To The Upper Ms Valley And Upper Great
Lakes...Around The Nrn Periphery Of The Persistent Ridge Over The
Mid Ms Valley And Central Plains.

At The Surface...A Stalled Front Extends From The Sd/Nd Border Ewd Across Central Mn...And The Front Has Been Reinforced By Convective Outflow Across Wi. Strong Surface Heating Is Expected Along And Sw Of The Boundary Across Sd/Mn/Sw Wi...Where Strong Instability Will Develop By Afternoon /Mlcape Of 2500-3500 J Per Kg/...And Convective Inhibition Will Weaken As Temperatures Warm Into The Mid 90s.

Meanwhile...A Zone Of Elevated Convection And Weak Ascent Appears To Be Spreading Enewd Over Central Nd. This Zone Of Ascent Will Interact With The Surface Front And Promote Thunderstorm Development Later This Afternoon/Evening From Srn Nd Into Central Mn ...And Other Storms May Also Form In Wi Along The Front/Retreating Outflow Boundary. The Storm Environment Will Be Characterized By Strong Instability And Sufficient Deep-Layer Shear For Supercells /Effective Bulk Wind Differences Of 40-55 Kt/.

The Initial Storms Could Be Supercells In The Wrn Part Of The Slight Risk...With Convection Evolving More Into Multicell Clusters With Time. Large Hail Will Be Possible With The Initial Supercells...While Damaging Gusts Will Become More Of A Concern Later This Evening As Storms Grow Into A Cluster Or Two.

Ny/Pa This Evening Into Tonight...

An Embedded Shortwave Trough Will Move Sewd From The Upper Great Lakes/Ontario To The Lower Great Lakes By This Evening...And The Mid Atlantic Coast Late Tonight...Accompanied By A Weak Surface
Front/Trough. A Separate Mcv Is Moving Sewd Over S Central Ny...But
This System Should Weaken This Afternoon Given The Lack Of Ongoing Convection And Downstream Buoyancy In The Warm Sector Across Pa/Ny. Clouds Will Tend To Limit Surface Heating Today Across Ny...And The Primary Increase In Low-Level Moisture Will Occur By Early Tonight From The W In Advance Of The Shortwave Trough.

The Initial Thunderstorm Threat Will Be Mid-Late This Afternoon
Across Wrn Ny As Weak Destabilization Occurs Immediately In Advance Of Convection Spreading Esewd From Sw Ontario. These Storms Will Be Capable Of Producing Isolated Damaging Gusts...Given Weak Buoyancy And 40 Kt Low-Midlevel Flow...Though Poor Lapse Rates Will Temper The Threat. Convection Will Continue To Spread Esewd Overnight Across Ny/Pa With A Marginal Damaging Wind Risk...Though Storms Will Likely Become Slightly Elevated On The E Edge Of The Primary Buoyancy Feed From The W.

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