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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Fri Oct 25

Split Flow Will Persist Over The Conus Through The Period... Downstream From Qstnry Closed Low Off The Ca Cst. In The Srn Branch...Nrn Az Upr Low Should Continue Slowly E Into Nrn Nm By
This Eve...Before Weakening Over W Tx Early Sat As It Becomes
Absorbed Within Confluent Flow On Srn Fringe Of Wnwly Nrn Stream
Jet.

At The Sfc...Weak Ssely Flow Will Prevail Over Nm And Vicinity On
Back Side Of Expansive Cp Sfc Ridge Centered Over The Tn Vly.
Somewhat Stronger S To Ssw Flow Will Continue Over The Region Above The Boundary Layer. But Area Raob And Satellite-Derived Pw Data Suggest That Moisture Return Into Nm And Adjacent Parts Of
Neighboring States Will Remain Quite Limited.

Four Corners To W Tx Today Through Early Sat...

An Arc Of Sctd Tstms Has Persisted Since Late Thu In Zone Of
Elevated Ascent E And Se Of Nrn Az Upr Low. This Activity Likely Will Continue To Move/Develop Slowly E Today...In Tandem With The Low.

While Some Diurnal Increase In Storm Coverage And Possibly
Intensity Is Expected...Especially Along Wrn Fringe Of Existing Storms ...The Strongest Activity Likely Will Remain Confined To Region Immediately N And E Of Mid-Lvl Lapse Rate Plume That Attm Extends From The Four Corners Se And Sse Across Cntrl And Se Nm.

Small Hail May Accompany The Strongest/Most Persistent Updrafts
Given Moderate Static /I.E. Dry/ Instability...But Sparse Moisture Should Limit Magnitude Of Buoyancy And The Risk For Svr Hail.

The Storms Should Weaken As The Zone Of Greatest Ascent Shifts E
Into W Tx Tngt/Early Sat.


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