Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Fri Oct 18

Tx...

A Broad Upper Trough Is Present This Morning Over Most Of The
Conus...With A Strong Cold Front Surging Southward Across The
Southern Plains. The Front Currently Extends From The Tx Panhandle Into Central Ok...And Is Expected To Lie Across Portions Of Central Tx By Early Evening. Dewpoints In The 50s And Partial Sunshine Will Lead To Marginal Instability Ahead Of The Front Over The Tx Big Country This Afternoon...Where Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Are Likely To Form. Weak Low Level Flow...Cape Values Below 1000 J/Kg...And Limited Convergence Along The Front Suggest The Risk Of Severe Storms Is Marginal Today.

Nevertheless ... Relatively Steep Mid Level Lapse Rates May Be Sufficient To Produce Hail In Stronger Updrafts Later Today.


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