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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Fri Oct 11

An Intense Deep-Layer Cyclone Over Cntrl Sd As Of Mid Morning Will
Develop Nnewd Through The Red River Valley With A Corridor Of 12-Hr Height Falls At 500 Mb Exceeding 100-150 M Along The System Track.

Meanwhile...An Upstream Vorticity Maximum Over The Srn Rockies Will Translate Ewd Into The Cntrl/Srn Plains Tonight Within The Base Of The Parent Long-Wave Trough.

In The Low Levels...The Nrn Plains Surface Low Will Develop Nnewd Along A Quasi-Stationary Front While A Trailing Occluded/Cold Front Advances Ewd Through The Mid Mo Valley Into Upper Ms Valley. The Trailing Extension Of This Boundary Will Move More Slowly Ewd/Sewd Into The Ozark Plateau And Ok/Tx Red River Valley By Late Tonight Into Saturday Morning.

Nrn Plains/Upper Ms Valley This Afternoon And Evening...

Scattered...Low-Topped Tstms Are Ongoing Over The Dakotas This
Morning Within A Zone Of Strong Height Falls/Dcva Preceding The
Synoptic-Scale Cyclone. Modest Midlevel Lapse Rates And Pw Values Of Generally Less Than An Inch Will Tend To Limit More Robust Destabilization...Though Pockets Of Stronger Daytime Heating May Yield Afternoon Sbcape Of 500-750 J/Kg Along The Occluded/Cold Front.

Latest Model Guidance Suggests That Storms Will Increase In Coverage And Intensity By Afternoon --Likely In The Form Of An Arcing Broken Band-- Within The Midlevel Dry Slot Where The Strongest Boundary Layer Heating/Destabilization Will Occur. Given The Presence Of A Kinematic Environment Featuring Pronounced Veering Of Winds With Height And Relatively Strong Low-Level Shear...The Potential Will Exist For Low-Topped Supercell And Bowing Structures With A Risk For Locally Damaging Winds And Perhaps A Few Tornadoes. This Severe Weather Threat Should Begin To Diminish By Mid To Late Evening As The Boundary Layer Cools And Stabilizes.

Srn Mn Into The Lower Mo Valley This Afternoon And Evening...

Convergence Along The Trailing Cold Front Will Weaken Today As The Stronger Isallobaric Forcing Shifts To The North Of The Region.
This Will Likely Limit Storm Coverage Through The Peak Of The
Diurnal Heating Cycle. However...Should Storms Initiate And Become
Sustained...The Presence Of 45-50 Kt Of Deep-Layer Shear Oriented
Largely Orthogonal To The Front Suggests The Potential For Rotating
Updrafts Capable Of Isolated Severe Weather.

Ozarks Into Ern Ok/Wrn Ar This Evening Into Tonight...

Deep-Layer Forcing For Ascent Will Increase During The Latter Half
Of The Forecast Period Owing To Strengthening Dcva Downstream From The Vorticity Maximum Moving Out Of The Srn Rockies And
Waa/Isentropic Ascent Along A Nocturnally Enhanced Llj. These
Processes Will Contribute To The Development Of Widely Scattered
Slightly Elevated Storms Amidst A Moistening Environment With Mucape Of 1000-1500 J/Kg. Given The Presence Of Modestly Strong
Cloud-Bearing Shear...The Setup May Support Some Updraft
Organization/Rotation With An Attendant Risk For Isolated
Occurrences Of Damaging Winds And Hail.


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