Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Fri May 3

Blocky Pattern Will Persist Through The Weekend As Cntrl States
Trough Evolves Into A Cutoff Low Over Nw Ar And Downstream Ridge
Lingers Over Ont/Que.

In The Branch Of Moderate Flow Undercutting Cntrl U.S. System... Satellite Data Show Series Of Weak Disturbances Extending From E Tx/La Ese Across The Nrn Gulf Of Mexico And Fl Peninsula/Bahamas.

At Lwr Lvls...Continental Polar And/Or Maritime Polar Air Will Prevail Over Most Areas E Of The Rckys. An Exception Will Be Over The Srn Half Of The Fl Peninsula...Where Maritime Tropical Air /With Pw Around 1.50 Inches/ Will Persist Along And S Of Weak W-E Stnry Front.

Lwr Oh Vly This Aftn/Eve...

N-S Cold Front Associated With Amplifying Upr Trough Will Progress
Only Slowly E Across The Lwr Oh And Tn Vlys Today. Sfc Heating
Likely Will Lead To Development Of Additional Low-Lvl Clouds Ahead
Of The Front Over Wrn Tn...Wrn Ky...And Srn Il. At The Same Time... Configuration Of Upr System Suggests That Associated Cold
Pocket Aloft Will Continue To Significantly Lag The Sfc Boundary.
Taken Together...Expect That Low To Mid-Lvl Destabilization Will
Remain Weak Today Along/Ahead Of The Front.

Nevertheless...Combination Of Modest Destabilization And Grazing
Influence Of Amplifying Upr Trough May Lead To A Broken Band Of
Low-Topped Showers/Weak Storms Late Today Over Parts Of Il/Ky/Tn/Far Sw Ind. With The Low-Lvl Ssely Flow Expected To Increase Somewhat As Approach Of Upr Impulse Fosters Wave Development Along The Front...Cannot Rule Out A Spot Or Two Of Strong Sfc Winds And/Or A Brief Tornado With The Convection. Overall...However...Sustained Svr Potential Appears Quite Low.

Cntrl/Srn Fl This Aftn...

Despite Strong Sfc Heating And Presence Of Maritime Tropical Air ...Relatively Weak Mid-Lvl Lapse Rates...Modest Deep Shear...And
Absence Of A Favorably-Timed Upr Air Impulse To Enhance Upr
Divergence Should Minimize Strength/Longevity Of Sctd Diurnal Tstms
Expected Along And S Of Weak Front Over The Cntrl Part Of The State.
The Strongest Storms May Occur Along Qstnry Confluence Axes
Extending W And Sw Over S Fl From Weak Low Now E Of Vero Beach.


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