Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Fri May 17

A Broad Upper Trough Is Moving Eastward Into The Western States ...While A Weak Upper Low Tracks Eastward Across The Mid Ms Valley. This Pattern Will Promote Three Areas Of Severe Thunderstorm Potential Today...Wy/Sd/Neb/Ks...Tx...And Ms/Al/Tn.


Strong Heating Is Expected Today Over Northeast Wy And Western
Sd...Where Southerly Low Level Winds Will Transport Mid 50s
Dewpoints Into The Region By Afternoon. Model Solutions Are In
Agreement That A Weakening Cap And Steep Lapse Rates Will Result In Scattered Thunderstorms By Late Afternoon. 30-40 Knots Of Effective Shear Will Promote Supercellular Structures Capable Of Large Hail And Damaging Winds. Storms May Grow Upscale During The Evening As They Spread Eastward Across Sd With A Continued Threat Of Locally Damaging Winds And Hail.


The Threat Of Thunderstorm Initiation Decreases With Southward
Extent Across Western Neb/Ks And Northeast Co. Strong Heating And Steep Lapse Rates May Be Sufficient For An Isolated Storm Or Two. Any Storm That Can Form Will Have A Conditional Threat Of Gusty Winds And Hail...But Uncertainty In Coverage Of Storms Precludes A Slight Risk Area At This Time.


The Surface Dryline Is Forecast To Extend Across West-Central Tx
Later Today. Several Overnight Model Runs Are Now Showing Isolated Convective Initiation Along The Dryline Late This Afternoon And Early Evening. Forecast Soundings In This Area Show Mlcape Values Of 2500-3500 J/Kg With Sufficient Capping To Limit The Number Of Storms That Can Form.

Nevertheless...There Will Likely Be A Narrow Zone Along The Dryline Where A Combination Of Strong Heating And Deep Mixing Can Eliminate The Cap And Allow A Storm Or Two. Supercells Capable Of Large Hail And Damaging Winds Are The Main Threats.


Scattered Thunderstorms Are Ongoing This Morning Over Northern Ms. Broken Clouds Ahead Of This Convection Will Limit Daytime Heating Over The Slight Risk Area...But Dewpoints In The Mid 60s And
Afternoon Highs In The 70s May Be Sufficient For Some Thunderstorm Intensification Later Today. Locally Damaging Winds Appear To Be The Main Threat.

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