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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Fri Jun 14

Cntrl High Plains To Mid Mo Valley...

Strong Mid Level Speed Max Is Expected To Eject Across The Nrn High Plains During The Day Friday With Zone Of Concentrated Height Falls Forecast To Focus Over Sk/Ab...Though Substantial Falls Will Extend Into Nd. Associated Cold Front Will Surge Across The Nrn Plains To A Position Extending From A Sfc Low Along The Sk/Ab Border...Swd Across The Ern Dakotas By 15/00z.

While Large Scale Forcing Will Affect The Nrn Plains It Appears Warm Sector Low Level Lapse Rates Will Struggle To Steepen As Sfc Heating May Be Minimized By Cloudiness. Given The Expected Warm 700mb Temperatures There Is Concern That Buoyancy Will Be Somewhat Limited Across Nd. For This Reason Thunderstorms May Not Be As Robust As Otherwise Could Be Expected And Low Severe Probs For Hail/Wind Should Suffice.

Farther South...Intense Heating Will Be Noted From Sern Co Across
Wrn Ks Into Sern Neb. Latest Guidance Suggests Sfc-3km Lapse Rates Will Approach Dry Adiabatic Ahead Of Wind Shift. As Temperatures Soar Into The Upper 90s Across The Cntrl High Plains Inhibition Will Weaken Such That Convection Should Develop Shortly After 21z. Along The Nern Extent Of This Higher Based Convection Significantly More Moist Boundary Layer Will Exist Across Ern Ks Into Ern Neb Where Sfc Dew Points Should Be On The Order Of 70f. Any Tstms That Root Into This Airmass Will Encounter Substantial Instability Within A Modest Veering Wind Profile With Height. While Deep Layer Shear Is Not Expected To Be That Strong...Activity That Evolves Over The Mid Mo Valley Will Be Aided In Part By Somewhat Stronger Warm Advection...Especially Near/Just After Sunset As Llj Increases Across Ks Into Wrn Ia. Isolated Wind/Hail May Accompany The Higher Based Convection Across The High Plains But A Few Slow Moving Supercells Could Emerge Over The Mid Mo Valley Due To The Enhanced Warm Advection Regime.

Nrn Fl...

Nly Flow Is Expected To Increase And Deepen Across The Sern U.S. In The Wake Of Ejecting East Coast Short-Wave Trough. Rising Sfc
Pressures Over The Oh Valley Should Force Weak Sfc Boundary Across Srn Ga Into Nrn Fl That Could Provide Sufficient Low Level
Convergence For A Few Robust Tstms. Heating Across The Peninsula Should Encourage Convection By Mid Afternoon And Sfc-6km Shear On The Order Of 25kt Could Support Slow Moving Multi-Cell Structures. Hail/Wind Would Be The Primary Severe Threats. At This Time Coverage May Be Too Limited To Warrant More Than Low Severe Probs.


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