Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Fri Jan 11

Lead Shortwave Trough Now Over The Mid Ms Valley Will Deamplify As It Ejects Newd Through The Oh Valley...Reaching The Nern States By Friday Night.

Meanwhile...A High Amplitude Trough Will Continue To Evolve Across Wrn Half Of The Country. Upper Jet Max Now Rotating Through The Base Of This Trough Will Contribute To Development Of A Lee Cyclone As It Moves Into The Cntrl Plains Friday...Reaching The
Upper Ms Valley Later Friday Night.

A Cold Front Will Advance Sewd Through The Plains And Mid-Upper Ms Valley In Association With This Process.

By The End Of The Period This Front Will Extend From The Sfc Low Over Mn Swwd Through Mo Into Cntrl Tx. Cold Front Over The Lower Ms Valley Will Retreat Nwwd...As A Warm Front...As Winds Back In Post Frontal Region In Response To The Deepening Sfc Low Over The Plains.

...Ern Tx Through Lower Ms Valley Region...

Sly Low Level Winds Will Strengthen Over A Broad Area Later Friday
Into Friday Night From Ern Tx Into The Lower Ms Valley In Response
To The Developing Lee Cyclone. This Will Promote Nwd Advection Of
Low To Mid 60s Dewpoints Through Warm Sector...But Instability Will
Remain Marginal Largely Due To Poor Lapse Rates. Deeper Forcing For Ascent Attending The Ejecting Jet Streak Will Remain Well North Of Warm Sector. However...Isentropic Ascent Should Increase Within The Strengthening Warm Advection Regime...Supporting Thunderstorm Development Later Friday Night From Ern Tx Into The Lower Ms Valley.

While Shear Through A Deep Layer Will Be Sufficient For Organized
Storms...Much Of This Activity Is Expected To Be Elevated...Which In
Conjunction With Weak Buoyancy Will Likely Serve As A Limiting
Factor For Any Severe Threat.

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