Morning Water Vapor Loops Show A Well-Defined Shortwave Trough Over Eastern Nm And The Tx Panhandle. This Feature Will Track Eastward And Across The Southern Plains Today Into Tonight.
Ahead Of The Trough...Southerly Low Level Winds Are Transporting Moisture Northward Across Tx/Ok With Dewpoints Rising Through The 50s. Low Clouds Are Slowly Eroding Over Western Ok And Western North Tx...But Are Likely To Persist Most Of The Day Over The Bulk Of Ok. This Will Limit Daytime Heating And Keep A Substantial Capping Inversion In Place Through 00z.
By Early Evening...Lift Associated With The Nm/Tx Trough Will
Overspread The Moist Axis Over Ok. Large Scale Ascent Will Likely
Result In A Rapid Weakening Of The Cap And Scattered Thunderstorm Development Over Northwest And Central Ok. Forecast Soundings Show Steep Mid Level Lapse Rates And Elevated Mucape Values Of 1500+ J/Kg. Favorable Effective Shear Values Will Promote Supercell Storm Structures Capable Of Hail.
While Damaging Winds And Tornadoes Are Not Out Of The Question...It Appears That Large Hail Will Be The Main Threat Today.
The Suite Of Storm-Scale Model Solutions This Morning /Nam Nests ...Nmm...Nssl...Hrrr/ Show Strong Agreement In A Narrow Corridor Of Greatest Risk Of Supercell Storms This Evening After 00z. This Area Of Western/Central Ok Have Been Included In A 30 Percent Hail Risk.
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