Severe Weather Threat Aug 7-11

On Wed/D4...Models Agree That A Broad Area Of Cyclonic Flow Around A Manitoba/Ontario Low Will Exist Across The Upper Ms Valley And Great Lakes...But Disagree On The Timing And Location Of Embedded Shortwaves.

At The Surface...A Low Pressure Trough Of Some Magnitude Should Extend From The Upper Great Lakes Swwd Into The Mid Ms Valley... And Continue Ewd Across The Oh Valley During The Day.

By This Time...Ample Low Level Moisture And Instability Should Be
Present For Thunderstorms Along The Front/Trough. Wind Profiles
Should Generally Be Unidirectional And Wly...Suggesting Damaging
Winds With Lines Or Propagating Clusters Would Be Most Probable.

However...Predictability Is Currently Too Low To Accurately Depict Any Areas.

High Pressure Will Build Swd Into The Nrn Plains From D5 Into D7... As The Broadening Upper Trough Shifts Ewd Across Canada And Into The Nern States.

Daily Afternoon Thunderstorms Again Appear Likely D6-D8 Across Much Of The Cntrl High Plains As Ely Low Level Flow Around The Nrn Plains High Maintains Moisture Wwd Across Wy/Neb/Co/Ks...But Widespread Severe Is Unlikely Given The Weak Flow Aloft.


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