Severe Weather Threat Aug 6-10

The Main Focus For The Day 4-8 Period Will Be The Evolution Of An
Upper Low Which Will Begin Over Manitoba And Ontario On Tue/D4.

Rotating Around This Low Will Be A Shortwave Which Will Move Across The Dakotas And Mn During The Day On Tue...Then Into Wi And Mi By Wed Morning.

At The Surface...A Low Pressure Trough Is Forecast To Extend Swwd Out Of Mn/Wi Into Ks By Afternoon...With Ample Moisture To Create Moderate Instability Given Cool Temperatures Aloft With The Trough.

Supercells Appear Likely To Form Along The Cold Front Given Forecast Long Hodographs And Orientation Of Deep Layer Shear To The Boundary.

These Storms Could Persist Well Into The Evening And Overnight.

Large Hail Will Be Likely During The Day Especially With A Few Bowing Segments Producing Damaging Winds Later In The Period. Depending On Quality Of The Boundary Layer Moisture...An Isolated Tornado Threat Cannot Be Ruled Out.

On Wed/D5...The Front Will Continued Ewd But The Upper System Is
Forecast To Shift Newd...Which Will Decrease Forcing Across The

Still...At Least Isolated Severe Hail/Wind Is Likely To Occur Across The Oh Valley Newd Into The Lower Great Lakes...But Potential Is Too Low For Any Areas.

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