Severe Weather Threat Aug 21-25

An Upper-Level Shortwave Trough Is Forecast To Enter Ontario During
Wednesday. As This Occurs...A Surface Cold Front Will Become
Positioned From The Upper Great Lakes Region Wswwd Into The
Nrn/Cntrl High Plains. A Moist Boundary Layer Airmass Located Along
The Front Will Reside Beneath Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates And Aid In
Strong Buoyancy During The Afternoon/Evening.

This Will Support A Risk For Severe Thunderstorm Development From Nrn Neb Into Sd As Well As Srn/Cntrl Mn And Nrn Ia. However ...Severe Potential Does Not Appear To Warrant A 30 Percent Delineation Attm.

Beyond D4...Models Continue To Show Differences In The Location Of
An Upper-Level Anticyclone...Which Impacts The Predictability Of
Warm/Moist Sly Return Flow Over The N-Cntrl Conus. Despite The
Spread In Model Solutions...A Severe Storm Threat May Exist From The Nrn High Plains Ewd Into The Upper Midwest During The D5 Through D8 Period.


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