Severe Weather Threat Aug 14-18

00z Ecmwf/Gefs/Ukmet Suggest That A Relatively Amplified Large Scale Flow Regime Will Continue Through The Last Half Of The Week. This Pattern Will Generally Be Characterized By Upper Ridging Over The Rockies/High Plains And Upper Troughing Over The Eastern Third Of The Conus...With Somewhat Stronger Cyclonic Westerlies Also Into The Pacific Northwest.

While Particularly Widespread/Impactful Severe Tstms Are Not
Currently Expected During The Day 4-8 Period...Day-To-Day Bouts Of
Isolated Severe Tstms Will Be Possible Within Two General Regimes.

For One...Diurnally-Driven Sporadic Strong/Severe Tstms May Be
Possible Along/South Of A Decaying Frontal Zone Across The Southeast States.

Additionally...Some Potentially Severe Tstms Could Occur Across The High Plains In Vicinity Of A Lee Trough And Nearby Moist/Instability Axis...With A Couple Of South-Southeastward Moving Mcs/S Nocturnally Materializing During The Period.

In Contrast...Relatively Dry/Stable Conditions Will Exist Across The
Midwest/Northeast States Into The Weekend With Little If Any Severe
Tstm Potential Anticipated.

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