Severe Weather Threat Aug 13-17

Medium Range Guidance Indicates That A Relatively Amplified Large Scale Pattern Will Continue Through The Middle/Late Part Of Next Week.

This Will Generally Be Characterized By Great Basin/Rockies Upper Ridging With Troughing Over The Eastern Third Of The Conus.

A Frontal Zone Will Slowly Shift Southward/Stall Through Mid-Week Across The Southeast States...With The West-Northwestern Portion Of This Frontal Zone/Associated Moist Airmass Extending Into Much Of The High Plains.

On Day 4/Tuesday...At Least Marginal/Isolated Severe Tstms May Be
Possible Across Coastal Portions Of The Northeast States/New England And Mid-Atlantic States Along/Ahead Of An Advancing Cold Front. This Will Be As An Upstream Upper Trough Continues To Steadily Amplify Over The Great Lakes...With Relatively Cool Temperatures/Strong Winds Aloft Overspreading The Region. Timing Of The Front/Uncertain Degree Of Destabilization Preclude A 30 Percent Severe Risk Area...But A Categorical Slight Risk In Subsequent Outlooks Currently Seems Probable For Tuesday.

In The Plains...Scattered Day-To-Day Areas Of At Isolated Strong/ Severe Tstms Will Be Possible Through The Middle/Late Part Of
Next Week.

This Will Be In General Association With Moist Low-Level Upslope And Other Subtle/Mesoscale Influences Coincident With Modestly Strong Northwesterly Flow Aloft. General Expectations Are For Near-Effective Frontal Development Across The Central/Southern
Plains...Upslope/Diurnally-Aided High Plains Storms...And
South/Southeastward-Moving Tstm Clusters Aided By Nocturnal Warm Advection.

While Isolated Bouts Of Severe Tstms Will Be Possible Each Day... Predictability/Potential Are Too Low To Introduce Any 30 Percent Equivalent Risk Areas.

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