Severe Weather Threat Apr 9-13

Multi-Day Severe Weather Episode Is Expected Across Parts Of The
S-Cntrl And Perhaps Eventually The Sern Conus In Association With An Upper-Level Trough Progressing Ewd From The Wrn Conus.

Preceding Days Of Sly Return Flow Of A Modified Gulf Air Mass Beneath A Stout Eml Should Yield At Least Moderately Unstable Conditions Ahead Of The Plains Dryline Being Overtaken By A Cold Front That Will Progress Ewd During The Period.

With Strengthening Of Mid-Level Swlys As The Speed Max Ejects From The Base Of The Wrn Conus Trough...Setup Should Be Favorable For Supercells And An Eventual Squall Line With All Modes Of Severe /Some Significant/ Probable During D4-5.

Still...Confidence Is Only Average For Highlighting Corridors Of Enhanced Coverage Probabilities /Aoa 30 Percent/ As Models Remain Moderately Divergent With Timing Of The Key Synoptic
Features During This Time Frame.

Discrepancies With Evolution Of The Upper-Level Trough And Attendant Cold Front Become Even Greater By D6-7...Where Severe Weather Areas Could Eventually Be Warranted In Parts Of The Southeast.


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