Severe Weather Threat Apr 30-May 4

An Array Of Latest Guidance Is Consistent In The Evolution Of A Upper Trough Moving From The Gulf Of Alaska To The Pacific Northwest And Nrn Rockies Through Day 3.

This Disturbance Is Forecast To Amplify Over The Intermountain West Before Moving East To The High Plains During Days 4/5.

Weak Cyclonic Flow Will Persist Over The Srn U.S. Ahead Of This Next System With Several Minor Impulses Embedded In The Srn Stream Flow From Tx To The East Coast.

Timing And Amplitude Differences Begin To Appear In The Model
Guidance As The Nrn Stream Trough Emerges Over The Plains During Day 5.

Ecmwf And Cmc Models Indicate A More Amplified And Slower System When Compared To The Latest Gfs. The Coincident Development Of An Extensive Blocking Upper Ridge From The Oh Valley To The North Atlantic Ahead Of The Digging Trough Lends Credence To The Slower And More Amplified Solutions Through Days 5/6.

In Fact...Latest Ecmwf Continues To Forecast The Development Of An Unusually Deep Closed Low Over The Srn Plains Through Day 7 As Part Of A Larger Omega Block Encompassing Much Of The East.

Overall Pattern Is Not One That Suggests Widespread Severe Weather.

However...The Chance For At Least Scattered Severe Storms May
Increase During The Day 5-6 Period As The Cold Front Associated With The Digging Upper Trough Spreads South Over The Cntrl/Srn Plains And Midwest. Uncertainties Regarding Airmass Characteristics And Timing Of The Stronger Forcing Coincident With Destabilization Are Too Great For An Outlook Area At This Time.

At Least Low Severe Weather Probabilities May Appear In Subsequent Outlooks As Model Guidance Becomes More Consistent With The Amplitude And Timing Of The Upper Trough And Cold Front.


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