Severe Weather Threat Apr 3-7

From Wed/D4 To Thu/D5...A Low-Latitude Shortwave Trough Will Move
Across Srn Plains And Across The Gulf Coast States...Then Will Phase With The Larger Scale Nern Trough As It Approaches The E Coast On Fri/D6.

Instability Over The Land Is Expected To Remain Weak Due To High Pressure Ridge In Place. However...Moisture Will Increase Across Fl Due To Swly Flow Off The Gulf...And Shear Profiles Will Increase As Well.

The Most Likely Scenario Is For A Line Of Storms To Form Over The Ern Gulf And Then Move Across The Peninsula With Perhaps A Damaging Wind/Marginal Tornado Threat.

This Could Happen Thu Or Fri...Dependent On How Fast The Trough Moves. If Models Come Into Better Agreement In Later Outlooks...A Severe Risk Area Could Be Added For Fl.

For D7-D8...The Pattern Becomes More Zonal But Models Do Show A
Possible Wrn Trough Developing...Which Could Lead To Episodes Of
Severe Weather Across The Plains In The D9-D10 Time Frame.

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