Severe Weather Threat Apr 29-May 3

Model Consensus Is That A Mean Upper Trough Will Prevail Over The
Ern Half Of The U.S. Much Of The 4-8 Period With Potential For Any
Higher Coverage Severe Events Expected To Remain Limited.

Days 4-5 A Series Of Weak Srn Stream Vorticity Maxima Will Remain
Well Detached From Belt Of Faster Wlys...And As A Result Will Drift
Slowly Ewd From The Srn Plains Through The Sern States.

By Day 6 A Nrn Stream Trough Is Forecast To Amplify Sewd Through Nrn Plains And Upper Ms Valley Accompanied By A Sewd Advancing Cold Front That Will Continue Into The Oh Valley And Sern States Day 7.

Modified Cp Air Will Return Nwd Through Pre-Frontal Warm Sector Resulting In Some Destabilization Ahead Of This Boundary. However ...The Stronger Flow Aloft Is Expected To Remain Post Frontal Resulting In Modest Shear In Warm Sector.

While Some Threat For Severe Storms Cannot Be Ruled Out Along And Ahead Of The Front...Overall Potential Does Not Appear To Warrant A 30% Or Greater Coverage Area.

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