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Severe Weather Threat Apr 2-6

Models Depict A Broad But Weak Shortwave Trough Moving From The Four Corners Tue/D4 Into The Srn Plains By Wed/D5. All The While... A Cold Front Will Be Pushing Rapidly Swd Reaching The Wrn Gulf Of Mexico By Wed Morning.

The Pre-Frontal Air Mass Tue Afternoon Across S Tx Will Exhibit
Moderate Instability With Only Weak Wind Speeds And Shear In The Low To Mid Levels. However...Given A Persistent Influx Of Moisture With Boundary Layer Dewpoints Into The Upper 60s F...Storms May Form By Late Afternoon...But More Likely During The Evening As The Cold Front Pushes Swd. Hail Will Be Possible...And A Few Damaging Wind Gusts May Occur Before Storms Get Undercut By The Cold Front.

As The Front Moves Offshore...Low Pressure Is Likely To Form Over
The Gulf Of Mexic0 Around D5...And Possibly Affect Al/Fl/Ga D6-D8.

Not Only Is Predictability Low At This Point...But Severe Storm
Potential Will Be Marginal Given Presence Of Large Surface High With
A Cold And Stable Air Mass Over Land.


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