Severe Weather Threat Apr 17-21

Both The Ecmwf And Gfs Are In General Agreement Through The Day4 Period Regarding The Evolution Of Upper Trough As It Progresses Into The Middle Of The Conus.

However...Major Differences Are Exposed By Wednesday In That The Gfs Erodes The Cp Air Mass Across The Cntrl Plains Allowing A Significant Sfc Cyclone To Track Newd Across Ks Into Srn Ia By Midnight.

Ecmwf Is Much More Aggressive With Polar Surge And The Lack Of A Meaningful Sfc Low. Given The Magnitude Of Cp Air Across The High Plains This May Better Represent The True Surge That Could Occur By Day4.

Following The Ecmwf...Ample Moisture/Instability Will Be In Place From Tx Newd Into The Mid Ms Valley And A Squall Line Should Evolve Along The Cold Front Early In The Period Across Ok Then Progress And Expand In Areal Coverage As Cold Front Moves Toward The Arklatex.

In Addition To A Squall Line...More Discrete Storms Could Develop Across The Warm Sector Over Cntrl/Nern Tx. While The Ecmwf May Better Depict The Scenario If The Gfs Is Correct A More Significant Severe Event Would Potentially Unfold Across The Plains Into The Mid Ms Valley.

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