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Severe Weather Threat Apr 16-20

Broad Swly Flow Is Expected To Dominate The Srn Plains/Ms Valley
During The Early-Mid Week Before Nwly Flow Develops Along Back Side Of Long Wave Trough.

Large Scale Pattern Does Not Favor Deep Sfc Cyclogenesis During The Period But Rather A Weak Wave Should Be Induced Across The Srn Rockies Tuesday Before Shifting Into Swrn Tx Wednesday Due To Significant Frontal Penetration Over The Plains.

Multiple Days Of Favorable Trajectories Off The Wrn Gulf Basin
Should Result In Meaningful Boundary Layer Moisture Advancing Across The Srn Plains Into The Mid Ms Valley With Significant
Moisture/Elevated Buoyancy Expected To Support A Band Of Post
Frontal Convection Within Warm Advection Zone.

Diabatic Heating And Frontal Lift Should Also Contribute To Significant Thunderstorm Development Near The Front Both Tuesday And Wednesday Before Progressive Upper Trough Shunts Deeper Moisture/Ascent East.

Steepest Lapse Rates/Instability May Be Overturned By Mid Week So
Confidence In Organized Severe Downstream Is Lower Than Across The Plains/Ms Valley Region.


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