Severe Weather Threat Apr 14-18

There Are Reasonable Similarities In The Medium Range Guidance With Respect To The Large Scale Flow And Pattern Over North America...At Least Through About D6/Tuesday 16 April.

During This Period...A Low Amplitude Shortwave Trough In The Srn Stream May Maintain Tstm Chances And Rain Across Parts Of The Southeast On D4-5...Monday Into Tuesday. However...The Expected Day 1-2 Frontal Intrusion Across These Areas Will Likely Limit Airmass Recovery And This Should Serve As A Limiting Factor For Severe Storms In This Region.

Over The Rest Of The Conus...The Large Scale Pattern Will Feature A
Positive-Tilt Trough Across The Wrn U.S. With A Belt Of Deep-Layer
Swly Flow Extending From The Southwest To Oh Valley And Northeast.
Overall...This Pattern Is Usually Not Conducive To Widespread Severe

Until The Wrn Trough Makes Substantial Ewd Progress Into The Plains And Ms Valley...The Prospects For More Widespread Severe Weather Should Remain Low. There Are Indications That This Process May Begin To Unfold Beyond D6/Tuesday.

However...Gefs/Euro/Cmc...And Ukmet Models Quickly Diverge And Present Various Timing And Amplitude Solutions In The D7-8 Time Frame. Thus...Considerable Uncertainty Exists In Pattern Evolution And Subsequent Prospects For Severe Weather Beyond The Middle Of Next Week.

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