Severe Weather Threat Apr 13-17

After A Brief Period Of Negligible Severe Probabilities...Low-End
Severe Potential May Develop Over Parts Of The Cntrl/Ern Gulf Coast
States On D5-6 In Association With A Low-Amplitude Srn Stream
Shortwave Impulse Encountering An Advancing Warm Front.

The Ecmwf/Cmc Are Consistently Faster/Weaker Than The Gfs... Resulting In More Subdued Inland Penetration Of A Gulf Air Mass And Modest Kinematic Fields.

More Prominent Severe Potential Will Probably Be Realized Towards
The Middle Of Next Week As Moderately High Confidence Exists In The Development Of A Wrn Conus Upper-Level Trough Early In The Week.

This Would Setup Return Flow From The Wrn Gulf Into The Cntrl Conus ...S Of A Relatively Tight Baroclinic Zone From The Midwest To
The Cntrl/Srn Plains.

The Cold Front Passage On D1-2 Is Not Expected To Be As Detrimental To Drying Across The Gulf Basin As The Most Recent Frontal Passage Had...Which Potentially Will Yield A More Strongly Unstable Warm Sector.

However...Confidence Is Very Low In The Evolution Of The Wrn Conus Trough With Immense Spread In Both Amplitude And Timing...Which Will Effect Downstream Cyclogenesis And Frontal Positions.

As Such...Considering Any Highlight For A Specific Area/Day With 30 Percent Or Greater Severe Probabilities Is Premature Attm.

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