Severe Weather Threat Apr 11-15

Slight-Risk Equivalent Severe Potential Should Persist Into D4 And
Perhaps Early D5 Mainly Across Parts Of The Southeast.

However...Continued Evolution Differences With The Synoptic Pattern
Along With Less Confidence In The Degree Of Instability In The Warm
Sector Air Mass Ahead Of An Ewd-Progressing Cold Front Render Severe Probabilities Below 30 Percent Attm.

Although Consistency Has Increased Somewhat With The Timing Of A Cold Front Expected To Push Off The S Atlantic Coast By D5...The
Gfs/Gefs Mean Remain Faster Compared To The Ecmwf/Ecmwf Mean And Cmc. This Timing Along With How Expected Widespread Convection Along The Front Evolves During The D3 Period Will Influence The Extent Of Severe Coverage On Thu-Fri.

Despite The Likelihood Of 60s Surface Dew Points Ahead Of The Front...Gefs And Ecmwf Are Consistent With Depicting Weaker Buoyancy Relative To Farther W In D2/D3.

Still...There Is Concern That With Low/Mid-Level Swlys Remaining
Quite Strong...Risks For Damaging Winds And Tornadoes Will Continue Until The Front Exits The Ern Seaboard.


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